Dritter Weltkrieg, Kalter Krieg oder zurück zur Großmachtrivalität?

Submission statement:

In this blog post, I argue that the post-1989 unipolar era is over, but challenge the common framing that we are simply entering a “Cold War II.” or „World War III“ It’s more likely that we enter a more fragmented system closer to 19th-century great power rivalry, with overlapping spheres of influence and inconsistent alliances. The post questions the assumption of rigid geopolitical blocs, pointing to fractures not just between the US and China, but within the Western camp itself. It also explores how nuclear deterrence constrains escalation while still allowing for increasing regional conflicts and strategic competition. Overall, it frames the current period as one of structural disorder rather than a clearly defined new order.

I think we need to wait for China to make a big move before we can know enough about the future.

It was a cold war 2 but transitioning to great power rivalry I would say. Cold war 1 has obvious ideological differences between two rival camps (democratic capitalism, vs authoritarian communism). Now it is a lot messier.

Like for China, it is obviously not communism now (even the ruling party is called the Chinese Communist Party) with all the companies and personal properties, but definitely very authoritarian with censorship and heavy hands on descendants. Practically China is state-directed authoritarian capitalism, basically being run like a company.

The US is still more or less the same as decades ago, but recently much more pragmatic than ideological. Lots of people do not like it, but freaky it is the most realistic way the US can still be competitive in this century. The US is 4 times less populous than China, that means 4 times less engineers, scientists, and companies. The US simply has no margin to play world police anymore and needs to laser focus on competing with China.

The EU is the really odd one. It claims itself as liberal democracy but there are lots of censorship going on for the egalitarian or radical left purposes. You could get jailed for online speeches or just doing disrespectful things in front of religious buildings. Political parties can be illegitimized based on their view points. I would say the EU these days is more like egalitarian socialism than liberalism. But the EU economy is not competitive and the EU is largely inward focused, so not really a major power anymore on the world stage.

Some people would count Russia as a major power but I think it will spiral down real fast once the Ukraine war is concluded and the effects of isolations and economic sanctions become obvious. The only way it can still appear strong is sabre-rattling with the nuclear weapons.

I think it may depend on where you live, sort of. After the trade war ended last year, I heard some Taiwanese political analysts/blog believe that the second Cold War was over, they already have a new construction, and in about 10-20 years, the rest of the world will accept and tune in to itself with what has formed. Thus, now is an adapting process, during which some political entities may choose the wrong path and pay an unnecessary price, while others may benefit from the misfortune. The intense conflicts may evolve into regional hot wars, while the profound conflicts may evolve into civil rebellion.

If you’re not sure what type of war this is then it’s not ww3