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    Die Mathematik zu humanoiden Robotern ist wild. 0,57 $/Stunde… Sind wir fertig?


    Ich habe recherchiert, wohin uns KI und Robotik tatsächlich führen, wenn man der Logik bis zum Ende folgt. Kein Hype, sondern nur die Abfolge der Ereignisse, die bereits im Gange sind.

    Die Kurzversion:

    KI ersetzt bereits Wissensarbeit. Laut WEF werden bis 2030 22 % der Arbeitsplätze wegfallen. McKinsey sagt, dass 60–70 % der Dokumenten-/Recherche-/Analyseaufgaben jetzt automatisierbar sind. Seit der Einführung von ChatGPT sind die Stellenausschreibungen für repetitive Rollen um 13 % zurückgegangen.

    Humanoide Roboter sind auf dem Weg. Im Jahr 2025 wurden weltweit 15.000 Exemplare installiert. 85 % davon wurden in China hergestellt. Unitree verkaufte einen Humanoiden in Originalgröße für weniger als 6.000 US-Dollar. Tesla strebt im großen Maßstab 20.000 US-Dollar an. Das entspricht 0,57 $/Stunde bei 4-jährigem Betrieb rund um die Uhr.

    Beides zusammen führt zu einer strukturellen Deflation. Nicht weil die Nachfrage sinkt, sondern weil die Produktionskosten für alles sinken. Darin sind sich Altman, Khosla und der IWF einig.

    Dies führt dazu, dass das UBI weniger eine Randidee, sondern eher eine mathematische Unvermeidlichkeit ist. Ein kleines Einkommen reicht aus, wenn alles billiger ist.

    Die vollständige Recherche mit Quellen von McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, Hamilton Project, Morgan Stanley, IPPR und anderen habe ich hier zusammengestellt: https://www.growthmode.agency/research/the-inevitable-destination

    Neugierig, was die Leute über die Zeitleiste denken. Ist das noch 5 oder 15 Jahre entfernt?

    The maths on humanoid robots is wild. $0.57/hour… Are we cooked?
    byu/Plenty_Eagle3160 inFuturology

    View 17 Comments

    17 Kommentare

    1. BitingArtist on

      There are two inevitabilities. Either UBI, or the rich scheme to wipe out the useless eaters. They are not known for their charity so I am leaning towards extermination as the likely future.

    2. ZombieJesusaves on

      Say it with me. UBI will never ever ever happen under any circumstances. The rich will take the gains for themselves. They really do not care if 99% of humanity is starving and revolting. With enough robots and drones, they will be untouchable.

    3. malapropter on

      I’m curious why you think that UBI would actually happen in a system where the end goal is to extract as much profit and value as possible. Where’s the sudden generosity? You say government taxes, but that seems (unforunately) laughably naive given the state of the world.

    4. _BreakingGood_ on

      That’s wild, that’s actually even more expensive than just hiring somebody in Malaysia like they already do today

    5. The_Frostweaver on

      I already see companies bragging about replacing workers with ai every day.

      I don’t see much of a mainstream push for universal basic income.

      We are cooked.

    6. Zomburai on

      >Which leads to UBI becoming less of a fringe idea and more of a mathematical inevitability.

      Markets and fiscal policy are run by people, not math. Sorry you had to find out this way.

    7. RabidSkwerl on

      Whoever is saying $0.57/hr is lying. That’s a “pulled it out of my ass” number if I’ve ever seen one

    8. MyrKnof on

      We’re gonna need universal income really soon at this speed. But I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the wealthy making profits off of this automation, won’t want to share a single dime, if they can lobby their way out of it.

    9. boris_squanch on

      0% chance of ubi in the US without a fundamental reversal of the extreme wealth inequality we live under. They already own everything. This system is content to watch the entire bottom half of its people rot in plain sight already, and they are probably excited at the prospect of shoveling more human capital stock into the charnel pit

    10. onlyacynicalman on

      There is another social construct where a mega rich person pays a few enforcers slightly more than the poors to keep us all slaves and poor. But I hope UBI is a thing, yeah.

    11. Haniel120 on

      That number is fiction, or only accounts for power costs while ignoring the LARGE initial investment and any maintenance / replacement parts.

      Companies will do the math on the attenuation of these robots, and they WILL start to replace humans, but it will be gradual. The main benefit of the bots is that they can work 24/7, no holidays, benefits, risk of lawsuit. A fully autonomous workspace could ignore OSHA regulations. It’s only a matter of time, but that time is further off than most fear.

    12. r2k-in-the-vortex on

      The price is nice and all, except those robots don’t do any work.

      The bots are easy, the software to drive them to do something useful is not. Maybe you can vibecode the control software? Good luck with that.

    13. Iron_Baron on

      My friend, the megacorporations will keep all of that profit margin increase. And there won’t be any UBI globally to offset these disruptions.

      Corporations and governments only do what the people *force them* to do. And with labor closing so much of its bargaining power, coupled with real time universal surveillance, we are looking at techno-feudalism.

      This trajectory ends in serfdom, not post-scarcity.

    15. LThadeu on

      So… work will slow down for everyone and salaries will raise, right? And not only the rich will get richer, right?…

      Oh boy, a tale as old as time…

    16. cyberentomology on

      We have been automating menial low-value human tasks for literally centuries. Are we cooked?

    17. Numba1Dunner on

      Its funny as companies seem to fail to realize that if AI and robots put everyone out of work then no one will be able to buy their products/services without any income.

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