Das Problem mit der Eroberung der Insel Kharg

Brynn Tannehill: “In the Persian Gulf, about 20 miles off the Iranian coast, is a small, rocky island called Kharg that could be the Trump administration’s key to victory in the war it unleashed. It could also be America’s undoing.

“The island is tiny—a little less than eight square miles—and has a population of about 20,000 people, most of them oil workers. It’s also the point of departure for approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. The United States struck military targets on Kharg on March 13 and is now reportedly considering invading it.

“The thinking goes something like this: Iran has extended its control over the world’s oil markets by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which most Persian Gulf exports must travel. The Iranian regime has made an exception for tankers carrying its own oil, and has reportedly exported at least 16 million barrels since the war began. But other Gulf nations have been largely unable to move their oil, and the effect has been an increase in Iranian revenue as the price of crude oil goes higher. The Iranians have reinforced this outcome by targeting pipelines on the Arabian Peninsula, which bypass the Strait of Hormuz. And the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen have the capacity, if they so choose, to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, potentially closing off the Suez Canal … 

“Taking Kharg would give the United States an important bargaining chip and undermine Iran’s theory of victory. Unable to export most of its oil, Iran would come under much the same kind of pain and pressure that it is attempting to inflict by closing the strait. The U.S. might then continue its air campaign until Iran decides to accept American terms for ending the war, rather than continue to suffer economic devastation.

“This may be why last week the United States dispatched the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Middle East. The unit operates from the USS Tripoli, an America-class amphibious-assault ship that reportedly carries a rapid-response force of 2,200 to 2,500 Marines. Moving such a unit to a different theater is not a thing done lightly, and the number of troops involved—enough for the island but not enough to seize the Iranian side of the strait—strongly suggests that the United States has designs on Kharg.” 

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With the US military might, taken and hold the Kharg Island should be a piece of cake.

However, as the island is Iran’s economic lifeline, there is a very good chance that Iran would gone absolutely Bonker and gone Scorched Earth with their neighborhood, proceeding to attacking everything oil facilities in the region, burning everything down with them.

With how many drones and missile that Iran still have in their arsenal, and how easily to disabling an oil complex just by a few hit from a few drones, I said that the moment Kharg Island was taken, the oil would gone through 200$ in a few days.