Kann Mexiko eine Konfrontation mit den Vereinigten Staaten vermeiden?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/mexico/can-mexico-avoid-confrontation-united-states
Kann Mexiko eine Konfrontation mit den Vereinigten Staaten vermeiden?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/mexico/can-mexico-avoid-confrontation-united-states
3 Kommentare
[Excerpt from essay by Arturo Sarukhan, international consultant and a former career diplomat and ambassador. He served as Mexican Ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013.]
This moment is particularly dangerous because once the United States sees Mexico as no longer a struggling partner but as an unwilling one, no single operational success is likely to restore the earlier presumption of good faith. But Mexico’s best argument against U.S. unilateralism is that cooperation produces better outcomes than coercion. Making that argument is the easy part; the harder task is proving it true, through measurable reductions in cartel violence and improvements in the rule of law, justice, and democracy. Every failure on those fronts does not merely embarrass Mexico and weaken its diplomatic position vis-à-vis the United States—it also hands Washington a justification for bypassing Mexican institutions in its fight against transnational criminal organizations. The argument, in other words, is only as strong as the results that sustain it.
Mexico must prove, by demonstrating that it can deliver security and build regional and international coalitions, that its sovereignty is not an obstacle to solving the cartel problem but the precondition for solving it sustainably. And although a U.S. unilateral use of force against the cartels is not inevitable, Mexico must prepare for its possibility, even as it keeps the door open to continued security cooperation.
If Trump or any US president does ever decide to confront/attack Mexico militarily and Mexico does put up a fight (regardless of how minimal or small that fight is) i think it *could* be the most dangerous military incursion of the US so far. Not because Mexico is a military power that could counter the US but because Mexico is just *right there*.
This is not a place that’s an ocean away and you can just bomb and leave. This is a place that’s a few miles away of the Permian basin, Silicon Valley, the refineries in southern Louisiana, etc.
And from what we’re seeing in current warfare, you no longer need massive amounts of SOTA artillery to cause some real damage, just some drones and coordination
I mostly agree with this. A lot of things are true at once:
-The current status quo with the Cartels causes huge issues both in Mexico and in the United States, and it’s untenable.
-The Cartels can unleash absolute havoc in Mexico and have a ton of corrupt insiders in the government military and police, except to my understanding the Marines. It makes actually trying to break the cartels extremely costly.
-It’s way easier to kick the can and do just “enough” to prevent the US from applying more pressure, than it is for Mexico to actually solve the problem.
-The possibility of direct US action on Mexican soil is much higher under Trump
-Taking out kingpins doesn’t do much on its own, and the US can’t unilaterally solve this problem even if it decided to move in on Mexican soil.
-Shutting down revenue streams and fighting the cartels would require firm US/MEX cooperation, and result in extreme costs for Mexico in particular.
To solve the problem, there probably needs to be a lot of US pressure on Mexico – but US unilateral intervention won’t work. (IMO)