Kann Avi Lewis in Beaches–East York ein NDP-Comeback starten?
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york
Kann Avi Lewis in Beaches–East York ein NDP-Comeback starten?
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york
6 Kommentare
Its one of the few ridings he has a realistic shot in… that said I do wonder how the vote split NDP/Liberal wise will be there. Its one of the few ridings not in the core that the CPC are non factors in.
Liberals got 68% of the vote in this riding last year. May be one of the most liberal ridings in the country. NDP distant third with 7% of vote
Since its creation in 1988, NDP has won it 2 times (1988, 2011). Folks may remember 2011 as the most votes the NDP has ever received nation wide and the lowest the LPC received ever. 1988: mulroneys 2nd election
Once the leadership election is over, the NDP will be in a honeymoon period so expect to see better poll numbers compared to the present.
A win in this riding could cause a massive perception shift for the party and a major jolt in the rebuild process. With NES gone, i think it’s possible
Lewis is just as much of a policy wonk as NES, with more charisma and more credibility on the left leaning spectrum
„Mainstreet Research tested 3 ballot scenarios in the riding of Beaches–East York. First, with incumbent MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as the Liberal candidate. In this scenario, Erskine Smith would win with an overwhelming majority, approximately 7 in 10 voters say they would re-elect Erskine-Smith again (67%) if an election were held today. “
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„Under Avi Lewis however, the NDP (without Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as Liberal candidate) manages to make Beaches–East York competitive. Lewis would get a plurality of votes (42.6%) versus generic Liberal candidate (39.5%) and the Conservatives would be reduced to third place with just 13.7%.“
While riding polls have a mixed record accuracy wise, many commenters seem to be dismissing the possibility of a Lewis win here. Speaking as a voter who temporarily lent Jagmeet Singh my vote in the 2019 by-election in Burnaby South as a courtesy, the same could happen here.
I like how the NDP has likely decided that the problem with Jagmeet Singh was that he was too fun and not a beneficiary of nepotism, and so they’ve found the guy to address that.