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    Kann Avi Lewis in Beaches–East York ein NDP-Comeback starten?


    Kann Avi Lewis in Beaches–East York ein NDP-Comeback starten?

    https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york

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    6 Kommentare

    1. EarthWarping on

      Its one of the few ridings he has a realistic shot in… that said I do wonder how the vote split NDP/Liberal wise will be there. Its one of the few ridings not in the core that the CPC are non factors in.

    2. EuropesWeirdestKing on

      Liberals got 68% of the vote in this riding last year. May be one of the most liberal ridings in the country. NDP distant third with 7% of vote

      Since its creation in 1988, NDP has won it 2 times (1988, 2011). Folks may remember 2011 as the most votes the NDP has ever received nation wide and the lowest the LPC received ever. 1988: mulroneys 2nd election

    3. lcelerate on

      Once the leadership election is over, the NDP will be in a honeymoon period so expect to see better poll numbers compared to the present.

    4. c-bacon on

      A win in this riding could cause a massive perception shift for the party and a major jolt in the rebuild process. With NES gone, i think it’s possible

      Lewis is just as much of a policy wonk as NES, with more charisma and more credibility on the left leaning spectrum

    5. Dave2onreddit on

      „Mainstreet Research tested 3 ballot scenarios in the riding of Beaches–East York. First, with incumbent MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as the Liberal candidate. In this scenario, Erskine Smith would win with an overwhelming majority, approximately 7 in 10 voters say they would re-elect Erskine-Smith again (67%)  if an election were held today. “

      <snip>

      „Under Avi Lewis however, the NDP (without Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as Liberal candidate) manages to make Beaches–East York competitive. Lewis would get a plurality of votes (42.6%) versus generic Liberal candidate (39.5%) and the Conservatives would be reduced to third place with just 13.7%.“

      While riding polls have a mixed record accuracy wise, many commenters seem to be dismissing the possibility of a Lewis win here. Speaking as a voter who temporarily lent Jagmeet Singh my vote in the 2019 by-election in Burnaby South as a courtesy, the same could happen here.

    6. Ordinary_Narwhal_516 on

      I like how the NDP has likely decided that the problem with Jagmeet Singh was that he was too fun and not a beneficiary of nepotism, and so they’ve found the guy to address that.

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