Letzten Monat habe ich gefragt, ob Orbán tatsächlich verlieren kann. Ich habe erneut 40.000 Simulationen durchgeführt. Jetzt ist es noch nicht einmal annähernd so weit. [OC]
https://i.redd.it/ljs469q81vng1.png
Von Exciting-Lab1263
Letzten Monat habe ich gefragt, ob Orbán tatsächlich verlieren kann. Ich habe erneut 40.000 Simulationen durchgeführt. Jetzt ist es noch nicht einmal annähernd so weit. [OC]
https://i.redd.it/ljs469q81vng1.png
Von Exciting-Lab1263
23 Kommentare
A month ago I posted my election forecast here and it sparked a big debate. The model has been updated with new polling data, and the picture has changed dramatically.
**Then vs. now:**
||Feb 9|Mar 8|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|TISZA (opposition) majority|50.6%|71.7%|+21pp|
|Fidesz (Orbán) majority|45.0%|16.9%|-28pp|
|Deadlock|4.4%|11.4%|+7pp|
TISZA now wins the most seats in **77% of simulations**. Orbán’s chance of holding an independent majority has collapsed from 45% to 17%.
The twist: the far-right Mi Hazánk has surged back toward the 5% parliamentary threshold (entry probability: 73%, up from 26%). If they get in, they become a potential kingmaker and the chance that *nobody* can form a government nearly triples.
Five weeks out, the question isn’t really „can Orbán lose?“ anymore. It’s whether TISZA can win outright, or whether Mi Hazánk forces everyone into coalition talks.
Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/)
Previous forecast: [https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/](https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/)
Happy to answer questions about the model or Hungarian electoral politics.
Fingers crossed, Hungary!
Let’s hope. What would happen in case of a tie?
The things that sucks is that Tisza is only minimally better than Fidesz
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t call into question your simulations, I don’t know if it maters. In Belarus the dictator also lost.
Like other butcher said: It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.
And that’s part of the ex-Soviet union culture now.
Hopefully that toad will spend an extremely long time in prison, along with every crony he made rich along the way.
Ok, but did you take any russian interferance into account?
Why is Tisza doing so favourably now?
I’ll be honest, I hate these posts. Because this will make voters think it will be an easy Tisza win, and the same thing will happen as in the US when democrats tought they were gonna win no problem and did not go vote. This is not over till it’s over.
And even then, Fidesz has so much power outside of the parliament that if Tisza doesn’t have supermajority it will be hell for them to do anything.
It’s more than a month out from the vote and there is plenty of campaigning left. Any projection at this stage is not relevant
You will be in for a huge surprise, because the Orbán crime syndicate will cheat their way into power again. He sucked Purins dick last week to ensure his win.
Thank you for the analysis and sharing it.
Why is Tisza even considered better than Fidesz? Tisza leader was part of Fidesz for 22 years and to my eye, of someone who knows little about Hungarian politics, Magyar does not seem any better.
Doesn’t even matter a little bit before people have actually placed their vote. So much can go wrong and its certain orban will use any trick in the book to win if there’s just a little doubt. So don’t worry about what the numbers say – and just go and vote
In almost all countries in EU the right/conservative always did better than in poles and predictions. Like we had in Polish presidental elections where all the polls showed that the center/left candidate would win and boom. We got more conservative president winning by 1pp.
Tisha will win 100% but I would not be super optimistic that they will have the supermajority etc.
Same story with trump.
How about shutting the fuck and stop spreading full copium?
What’s the DK majority win chance
Thinking you already won is the best way to actually loose.
People need to stay mobilized and show up on election day, not stay at home thinking it’s already in the bag so why bother.
Don’t count your cickens before they hatch.
I shouldn’t have to scroll in the comments to figure out what party is orbáns and whos not… in r/europe not everyone is from hungary…
I said a month ago and I say again now, this is just as good as taking any single opinion poll, the adjusting for the vote system.
And it cannot be % win chance, because it is not probability in a vaccum, it cannot be 12.4% TIZA supermajority, it either will be or wont be.
Many were absolutely certain that Hilary or Kamala will win.
Seems that whatever the simulation is, still gives a good chance to Orban.
You know how the joke goes: it’s 50:50 you win lottery – you either win or you don’t.
Why did you use half-circle to show 100% of something?
I saw a lot of these in 2016, it didn’t pan out for us 😅