338 Sonntags-Update: Großer Winteraufschwung für die Liberalen
https://open.substack.com/pub/threethirtyeight/p/338-sunday-update-major-winter-surge?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1j3aab
338 Sonntags-Update: Großer Winteraufschwung für die Liberalen
https://open.substack.com/pub/threethirtyeight/p/338-sunday-update-major-winter-surge?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1j3aab
9 Kommentare
This is the Conservative worst nightmare.
The Liberals get to govern like they are a majority.
If the cons work against them they get blamed for the election and get slaughtered
If the cons work with them they are no better than the NDP in their bases eyes.
As an aside oof the Greens are ahead of the NDP in Ontario.
That seems insane to me at this point.
And I get why Carney called the by-elections now. No one wants an election.
4 seats for the NPD (down 3 from their 7 in 2025) is *very preoccupying*. **It is the lowest the model has ever had the NDP!!** And the model obviously does not speculate on the big possibility of Alexandre Boulerice resigning, opening the 2nd safest NDP seat to a by-election.
**Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie** is seen as a Boulerice seat more than a NDP seat. If Boulerice leaves, the Liberals are likely the favourites and are likely to gain this seat from the NDP. The Bloc is a wild card, since the seat was bloquiste before Boulerice took it in 2011, but the Bloc’s chances remain *very low*.
The CPC needs a complete overhaul. These numbers guarantee an election that might wipe out 20 CPC MPs. It also means those MPs are more and more tempted to jump ship to survive. Poilievre is too deeply unpopular at this point. Someone needs to stop this before it becomes a train wreck
With these numbers it’s hard to see a potential NDP leader get into parliament via a by election in pretty much any riding in the country, maybe a couple would be competitive but hard to say they would be favoured in any. Pretty tough spot if some other than McPherson wins
Watch the video of him eating the apple. How can someone act like that while running for PM? How the tables have turned so badly. He deserves everything that’s happening to him right now. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
Every time conservatives lose an election they all blame liberals and people who voted for liberals. They never blame themselves. They still haven’t figured out the goal of elections is to win… All of Canada, not just AB and Sask.
Ironically, until they take responsibility for their losses, they will keep losing.
Carney is more popular now then when he was in the honeymoon phase.
Can someone explain why all of these polls treat Manitoba and Saskatchewan as though they were a single entity rather than two provinces? Considering how electorally distinct the two provinces are, it never made any sense at all to me. Saskatchewan tends to be a Conservative stronghold, whereas Manitoba has an NDP government and has never been what could be called a Conservative stronghold.