Warum China dem Iran nicht helfen wird: Peking kümmert sich um das Öl, nicht um das Regime
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-help-iran
Warum China dem Iran nicht helfen wird: Peking kümmert sich um das Öl, nicht um das Regime
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-help-iran
2 Kommentare
[Excerpt from essay by Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.]
Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, Beijing has grown increasingly disillusioned with Tehran’s capability and credibility as a regional power. Chinese strategists have also lost confidence because of what they see as Iran’s tendency to capitulate to Western demands, rather than fight back, as manifested in its persistent desire to negotiate with Washington. Ultimately, Beijing doesn’t see regime change in Iran as a worst-case scenario. China is willing to work with whatever leadership emerges after the strikes as long as it protects oil flows and prioritizes shared economic interests. Only if these interests are threatened, or if a protracted war of attrition disrupts oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, will Beijing have to reconsider its place on the sidelines and respond more forcefully.
If the regime changes, oil will likely be traded in U.S. dollars rather than Chinese yuan. I doubt China would ignore that possibility.
Perhaps a war in the Middle East involving Iran could keep the United States occupied, with billions of dollars spent on the conflict. From China’s perspective, an occupied U.S. or a U.S. with fewer resources available to counter China could be a good thing.
Chinese strategy is never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. The U.S. does not gain much if Iran loses outright. But if the war drags on, it could become costly for the United States.