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    1. DemocracyforLunch on

      Imagine sinwar thinking hi’s attack on israel resulting in the whole Shia muslim evil axis to fall

    2. michaelclas on

      The fog of war is strong. I would be wary of being too confident in this assessment as of yet

    3. It’s not confirmed the analysts are speculating and trying to get a scoop.

      I’d hazard we won’t get confirmation unless Iran admit it.

    4. astute_stoat on

      They are also saying that the assessment is not based on the footage of his compound being flattened, but on other sources.

    5. Linus_Naumann on

      They might just say it to encourage a coup. Use confusion and chaos to spread fear. However might as well be true, can’t know right now

    6. I don’t think it’s true. Israel claimed they assassinated the Hamas leadership in their airstrikes on Qatar and that turned out to be false.

    7. Decapitation strikes are cheap, relatively easy, and often somewhat effective.

      The problem is that they work both ways. If this turns out to be true (and that ‚if‘ is doing some heavy lifting,) some other leaders inside and outside the region will need to beef up their multi-tier personal security.

    8. Ive heard the logic of choosing the time of attack was Saturday morning in Iran – start of the work week, where most people are in the office. That means it was chosen specifically for targeted killing.

    9. If it’s true he’ll be buried under a building.
      If it’s false he’ll probably refrain from the spotlight for the time being in hopes of keeping it that way.

      A grain of salt is highly recommended either way.

    10. Even if he wasn’t killed this would be the exact type of thing that would benefit them the most to say, so I’ll wait until there’s some further confirmation on this

    11. I’ll believe it when the betting markets do. If someone in intelligence really knew for sure, they’d clean up.

    12. Let’s reserve some skepticism amidst a conflict where barely anything is getting out of Iran so far, and not take ‚Channel 12‘ reports as gospel.

    13. Chambanasfinest on

      I assume this is probably true, but even if so I suspect Iran was preparing for this moment. Unlike in Iraq with Saddam, a successor will likely emerge soon.

    14. dogsonbubnutt on

      > The TV station had minutes earlier said the Israeli assessment was that Khamenei was “hurt at the very least,” and that this was not an assessment based on satellite imagery showing Khamenei’s presidential compound being flattened, but rather on information from unnamed sources.

      so the thing here to me is that a lot of this operation in general seems to be predicated on the idea that if enough of irans leadership dies/is taken out, that it will _somehow_ lead to a mass overthrow of the regime.

      honestly all this seems like its doing is speed running an IRGC dictatorship or a civil war

    15. Oh good. This will certainly not lead to long term repercussions and a rally-round-the-flag effect in Iran.

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