Quellen: Weltbank (1990–2015), BirthGauge (2020–2025)
Werkzeuge: Tableau, Illustrator
Der Iran durchläuft einen der schnellsten demografischen Veränderungen seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen: Die durchschnittliche Zahl der Kinder pro Frau sank von 4,93 im Jahr 1990 auf 1,49 im Jahr 2025. Seitdem das Land im Jahr 2000 unter das Reproduktionsniveau gesunken ist, ist es dem Land nie wieder gelungen, über die Schwelle von 2,1 zu klettern.
Mit 1,49 hat der Iran die niedrigste Geburtenrate in seiner Geschichte und die drittniedrigste im Nahen Osten hinter der Türkei (1,39) und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten (1,2, einschließlich Nicht-Einheimische).
Israel hielt jedoch über diesen Zeitraum von 35 Jahren eine stabile Geburtenrate zwischen 2,82 und 3,09 aufrecht. Es bleibt konstant über dem Ersetzungsniveau von 2,1, wobei selbst der niedrigste Wert deutlich über dem Schwellenwert liegt.
Israel sticht unter den hochentwickelten Ländern durch seine hohen Geburtenraten hervor, im Gegensatz zu dem starken Rückgang der Geburtenraten in anderen Industrieländern.
Von Accomplished_Gur4368
9 Kommentare
Here’s a chart showing how much of an outlier Israel is among its peers
https://preview.redd.it/jtpz4w7dxflg1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=661ade50a95294757735d14beece8d4fd1c66f02
[https://x.com/i/status/2026280341959331895](https://x.com/i/status/2026280341959331895)
While Iran has mostly followed the fertility decline seen in countries at similar development levels, Israel stands apart. Compared with its HDI peers (such as Greece, Spain, France, Italy, and Cyprus), Israel follows a different path. While these countries have seen decades of falling birth rates, Israel’s fertility rate has stayed relatively steady and much higher than theirs.
The 2.1 replacement level matters the most in this comparison. All of Israel’s peers fell well below it many years ago. Israel never has. Even at its lowest point in the early 1990s, fertility was about 2.7 roughly 0.6 above replacement.
While most developed countries face aging populations and shrinking birth rates, Israel remains the only country in its peer group to consistently stay above the replacement level.
Well it helps when your government subsidises 10% of the population to do nothing but breed and read a book.
The most interesting thing is that Jews outside of Israel, including the haredi, have very low fertility rates, on average 1.4 in the US, below the national average, and much below if you exclude the haredis, yet Israel is super high
Jews don’t have an abnormally large number of kids, Israelis do, and this just furthers the mystery
Would be interested to know if the stability in Israel is actual stability or different subgroups moving in opposite directions leading to overall balance. In other words, is this increasing ultra-orthodox fertility offsetting decreasing fertility in the rest of the populace? I know the former’s higher, but what’s the direction of travel?
As a gay secular Israeli: my European gay friends are always shocked when they get here and realize that the gay community here raises two kids per couple on average. I am 35 with two kids, hoping for 2 more soon… we love kids, very family oriented, have a very strong sense of responsibility, and hope.
I wonder how the Palestinians are doing after a genocidal colonizing state killed their children.
What happened in Iran between 1990-1995?
I understand whar you’re trying to do with the visual, but to me, it is confusing. It looks like in 2025, Israel is actually smaller than Iran’s fertility rate, since I would expect area to matter. I think it would look much cleaner and be more obvious if you just used columns or scaled the flags with a uniform width.
A society under permanent economic blockade explicitly designed by the greatest superpower in history to „strangulate“ it is experiencing low birth rates.
A society possessed by a messianic Herrenvolk ethno-nationalist ideology of expansion, land theft and ethnic replacement has a high fertility rate.
It’s a mystery.