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    Die politischen Aussichten für Südamerika im Jahr 2026 laut Prognosemärkten

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    13 Kommentare

    1. Otherwise_Wave9374 on

      Prediction market maps are always fascinating because its basically sentiment made visual. Do you have the source market link for the probabilities? Id be curious to compare how much of this is driven by liquidity vs actual news.

      Also, if anyone here shares these kinds of charts for work, Ive picked up a few tips on making data visuals more shareable from https://blog.promarkia.com/ (small tweaks in titles/labels make a big difference).

    3. Professional_Top9835 on

      How are the politics or Guyana and Suriname then? curious because of that „usually do not fall within the right and left divide“.

      This is curious for me as the „left/right“ divide is already different for the spanish americas (compared to europe or the anglosphere), for example; Ecuador’s „rigth wing“ is pro-LGBT, pro-NATO, and pro-globalism, meanwhile the LATAM „left“ is socially conservative, nationalistic and pro-Russia/Iran.

    5. ConsistentAmount4 on

      Can someone educate me on Guyana and Suriname’s politics? That’s the most interesting part of this map to me.

    6. H4RR1_ on

      If Venezuela holds elections this year, the center-right opposition will win with 65+% of the vote

    8. Thinking_King on

      The 2024 Venezuelan election results weren’t “contested”, unless you count “blatantly ignored by the dictator” as “contested”. There is overwhelming evidence that Maduro lost by quite some margin.

    13. Potential-Design3208 on

      I am argue against Colombia turning right since most polls between the top two contenders, Cepeda (Left) and De La Esprilla (Right), show Cepeda winning. It is close though, so I guess it is in the realm of possibility, though not sure if I’d trust prediction markets as perfect indicators.

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