Der Kreml droht mit dem Einsatz der Marine, falls Europa weitere Schiffe der russischen Schattenflotte beschlagnahmt

Threatens to have more of their fleet sink. „The human cost will be on you when our ships sink!“ will be the russian rallying cry.

What navy?

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If he deploys them I hope 1) he’s ready to lose them 2) we don’t act like pussies about it and actually blow them up.

Maybe I don’t quite understand the situation, but aren’t these ships flying flags other than Russian flags? How would one know the ship is Russian if the flag it flies is not the flag of Russia?

So….they ARE Russian?

What navy? The Cold War clunkers?

So, if the EU stops ships that Russia won’t/doesn’t claim, Russia will release its navy? Do I have that right?

So you admit they are Russian ships breaking international sanctions then?

Threaten is all they have, no action will ever be taken by Russia and we should start treating them as such.

Their submarines might be an issue, but their surface fleet? The threat there is that they will turn into more submarines.

What navy?😂 It’s pretty much been wiped out by the Ukrainians.

The threat is to deploy one of the most comically inept, poorly maintained, and underfunded navies in history? Go for it. The memes will be hilarious.

“Stop confiscating our ships that we are illegally misrepresenting internationally!”

“Stop enforcing international laws, our corrupt determinations and propaganda are being undermined!”

Oh? But these ships aren’t Russian on paper… I thought they were part of other nations? Are you saying these were actually Russian vessels under false flag all along? Who knew!

It’s always about projecting.

If their navy can still take to the seas then it clearly means that duct tape suppliers have been evading the sanctions!

What navy? 🤣 they scared to take their ships out of port because Ukraine will sink them with their sea drones. Ukraine already took out a sizeable portion of russias navy. Russia is a paper tiger

Hmm. Let’s lay aside the polemics…

Let’s look at what assets the Russian Navy could reasonably send. Broadly speaking there are surface and subsurface vessels.

Typically, surface vessels are desired for this sort of escort work. They are visible manifestations of national will. Russia has previously sent submarines to try and escort vessels but this is more indicative of the fact that the submarine fleet is the more operationally ready than the surface fleet. Additionally, submarines depend upon stealth; escort duty negates that. Finally, the role of attack subs is to hunt and trail opposing SSBNs and carrier strike groups.

So, surface fleet it is. What sort of ships does the Russian have that could accomplish this task?

Realistically, the Russians have 6 destroyers, 12 frigates and ~80 corvettes in service. Let’s exclude the two Kirovs (neither of which is in service at the moment) and the Slavas (only one is actually in service).

This leaves us the six Udaloy destroyers (three others exist but do not appear in any sort of operational condition). They have the range for escort duty, ~nominally 10knm. But there are only six.

Now the frigates. None of the frigates are capable of sustained operations beyond 30 days. They are more coastal defense vessels than a true blue ocean force (as befits a large land power).
1. Krivak class, there are two remaining but they behave limited range (~5knm) and limited endurance (<30 days).

2. Neustrashimy class. Same issue as above.

3. Admiral Grigorovich: limited range and endurance, no more than 30 days.

4. Gepard: even more limited range and endurance, <20 days.

5. Gorshkov: same problem as above. Under 5,000nm range and <30 days endurance.

Corvettes: these vessels are even more limited in range and operational endurance. They are coastal defense and littoral vessels only.

Bottom line is, *any* attempt to deploy any of the above would require significant logistics sustainment. The Russian navy has very limited oiler capacity and other sorts of support vessels. Deploying even a single combatant would require a significant portion of available support resources.

The Russian navy therefore really has very limited options outside of submarines for projecting power beyond its coasts/littorals, which makes sense for them. They have very limited hulls to escort the very large number of shadow fleet vessels in existence. Reasonably, they are probably capable of conducting, at most, 2-3 escort operations. Each of which consisting of 1 surface combatant and 1-2 support vessels.

They *could* task attack subs to do the job but that would be exceptionally challenging for the crews, would negate the sub’s primary defense (stealth) and would take them away from their primary critical strategic role.

Bottom line is that the Russian navy is simply not designed, built or operationally capable of these sorts of operations. They are extremely resource intensive. Realistically, there are maybe two individual navies in the world capable of such things (US & China). Europe, as a third, collectively could pool their resources and manage such activities as well.

It is interesting for me to see how the Russian fleet of today is so different than the blue water fleet built under Gorshkov. At enormous expense the Soviets built a blue water navy which, while not equal to the USN, was a significant threat. Some would argue that they did not need to challenge the USN head to head but were well served by a more short ranged force capable of sea denial of their coasts.

Curiously, the PLAN of today has taken a similar tack to the Soviets; they are building a large blue water fleet designed to defeat the USN in the high seas. It would probably make more sense from a financial perspective for them to focus on defending their coastline. An area denial strategy would be quite effective as the US must overcome the tyranny of distance, though doing so would also cede the sea lanes of communications to the US and its allies. It is also worth pointing out that Beijing has invested vast sums of *rapidly* building a massive fleet. The maintenance of that fleet will only grow and will require en masse replacement. I don’t think it is a sustainable strategy unless they are planning for a near to mid term major war where they will need reserve of ships.

The issues that the Russians are facing at sea highlight the critical importance of a strong fleet to any sea fairing nation. When a significant portion of a nation’s economic livelihood is over the water a nation must either invest in protecting that asset or have others willing to shoulder the burden. When conflict emerges and merchant shipping is held at risk, there is simply no time to build the ships, train the crews or provide the weapons or develop the capacity to build any of it. All of it has to *already exist.*