Estnischer Auslandsgeheimdienst: Russland baut während der Kämpfe in der Ukraine eine große Drohnenstreitmacht auf und füllt Munitionsvorräte für einen weiteren Krieg auf

Why would you open 2 warfronts when you’re not winning in 1?

Sooo many chips in those washing machines RU has captured in UKR.

**Russia is simultaneously capable of fighting the war in Ukraine and rebuilding stockpiles for a future war, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service warns in its threat** [**report**](https://www.valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2026-et.pdf) **published on February 10.**

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA), in its annual threat report assessment, portrays Russia’s war effort as a two-track project: sustaining high-intensity combat in Ukraine while rebuilding the organizational and industrial base that could sharpen its ability to threaten NATO in the years ahead.

Even after heavy losses and the drawdown of Soviet-era stockpiles, the report argues, Russia remains dangerous — and its ongoing reforms and wartime adaptations are expanding future military capacity, making reconstitution a persistent security challenge for Estonia and its allies.

A key element in this growth of military readiness is the report’s depiction of how Russia is institutionalizing unmanned warfare. Rather than treating drones as an improvised add-on, Russia is portrayed as embedding unmanned systems into permanent force structures across branches and service types, and at multiple command echelons, for both combat and combat-support missions.

The readiness implication drawn in the text is stark: Russia is preparing for a future in which unmanned systems will be used in a coordinated way across land, air, and sea, and the report explicitly links this to the prospect of operations extending “across the entire territory of Estonia.”

The report goes further than generalities by pointing to concrete organizational steps. It states that on Putin’s order in fall 2025, Russia created an unmanned-systems branch. The VLA assesses this as a move toward centralization and standardization: consolidating the many units that emerged through wartime initiative and semi-volunteer efforts, tightening central management, and unifying tactics, procedures, and development across the armed forces.

In terms of scale, the report states that Russia is likely planning to form about 190 unmanned-system battalions, the majority of them UAV units in the ground forces, airborne forces, and naval infantry. That level of planned formation-building signals a shift from episodic drone use to an enduring capability base — training pipelines, manning, doctrine, and command structures that can outlast a single campaign.

Geography is treated as part of readiness, not just an abstract planning point. The report notes developments in Russia’s northwestern direction that would matter directly to Estonia. It states that in the Baltic Fleet a regiment of unmanned sea-attack craft has been formed.

The unmanned UAV regiment exists under the direct authority of the Leningrad Military District, with staffing and equipping underway. Looking ahead, it anticipates additional UAV regiments and battalions in the Baltic Fleet and in divisions of the 6th Combined Arms Army in the coming years, framing these additions as growth in strike and reconnaissance capabilities in Estonia’s immediate vicinity.

The other pillar of the report’s readiness assessment is defense-industrial expansion, especially in artillery ammunition. One of the most striking quantitative claims is that Russia’s defense industry has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17-fold over four years.

The report treats this as evidence that Russia has been able to expand war production capacity despite sanctions pressure and despite the intense demands of the front.

To ground that claim, the report provides concrete production estimates for 2025. It places total output at roughly about 7 million artillery-related munitions (shells, mines, rockets), and breaks this figure down further: 3.4 million howitzer rounds (122/152/203mm), 2.3 million mortar munitions (120/240mm), 0.8 million tank/IFV munitions (100/115/125mm), and 0.5 million MLRS munitions (122/220/300mm).

They are not.

If Russia genuinely thinks war against NATO will be the same trench slogfest as they are fighting now, they are in for a gigantic surprise.

Drone warfare is basically guerilla warfare. It’s for small, unprepared, poorly supported militaries. Attacking NATO would have a very different outcome.

Sounds like perfect targets

Burn the stockpiles.

Europeans will have a couple summits and strong words to scare everyone 😂

Still trying to utilize the idea that the US may be very busy with china in the near future, and europe is considered weak and still attempting to arm themselves back up.

Russia is playing a medium-term psychological game where they keep applying constant pressure on Europeans making them fearful and uncomfortable all the while tempting them with the prospect of going back to the „good old days“ of peace, unrestricted business operations, and affordable natural resources if only Europeans agree to a new security architecture where Russia gets what it wants which will be framed as a win-win situation by Russia and pro-Russian European right-wing politicians.