Der „Breaking Bad“-Effekt ist real: Daten zeigen, dass Krebsdiagnosen zu einem Anstieg des kriminellen Verhaltens um 14 % führen
https://www.zmescience.com/science/news-science/the-breaking-bad-effect-is-real-data-shows-cancer-diagnoses-drive-a-14-spike-in-criminal-hehavior/
5 Kommentare
Just got done watching this amazing show. Crazy
Citation:
Andersen, Steffen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg. 2026. „Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime.“American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 18 (1): 88–119.
DOI: 10.1257/app.20220769
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20220769
Abstract:
Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the timing of cancer diagnoses, we establish that health shocks elicit a large and persistent increase in the probability of committing a crime. This effect materializes in a substantial rise in both first crimes and re-offenses. We uncover evidence for two mechanisms. First, an economic motive leads individuals to compensate the loss of legal revenues with illegal earnings. Second, cancer patients face lower expected cost of punishment through a lower survival probability. Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society.
It’s not ‘cancer’. It’s a human in a desperate situation that can cause someone to break the law to mitigate their desperation. I hate when ‘science’ articles do this. Trying to act like it’s a discovery or insightful to state the broadly obvious in a narrow context.
Desperation and nothing to lose, seems pretty obvious
It’s just another form of desperation