Russisches Ural-Rohöl aus Noworossijsk fiel am 16. Dezember auf 34,52 US-Dollar pro Barrel, wobei einige Ladungen nach China mit einem Preisnachlass von über 35 US-Dollar verkauft wurden, praktisch unter 30 US-Dollar, berichtete RBC unter Berufung auf Argus Media.
Russian Urals crude from Novorossiysk dropped to $34.52 per barrel as of December 16, with some China-bound cargoes selling at over $35 discount, effectively below $30, RBC reported citing Argus Media.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) 2025-12-20T10:45:45.045Z
20 Kommentare
Still 35 too much
I’ve seen a wide range of numbers for the break-even point for Russian crude, but I think the consensus is that it’s at least $50 per barrel.
If Russia is indeed receiving $35 per barrel, they’re losing money on ever shipment. But they can’t simply shut down production because it will be challenging or impossible to restart the wells, and they have nowhere to store vast quantities of crude, so they have to keep shipping the stuff and getting whatever they can.
Yet another way in which Putin is proving that he’s a strategic genius.
It can go a lot lower surely
Good, fuck Putin .
We’re seeing disruption to Russia’s oil sales on a scale never before seen and I doubt their own figures are reliable.
Just like relatively small housing budgets or road initiatives tend to overshoot budgets from unforeseen costs, the scale of disruptions of Russia’s oil production must be unfathomably difficult to estimate and budget for.
Reparations isn’t straightforward when there’s no means to prepare for it. As losses pile up on downtime with pressing continuous flow to keep wells open, reparations are likely quick fixes that increase uncontrolled maintenance costs.
The hits on tankers likely pressures on costs of transport as insurance increase on a daily basis. This isn’t even including fluctuating purchases as other countries attempt to navigate sanctions in a world that seems to change on a daily basis.
Russia can’t know the real figures, it’s simply a chaotic dynamic on scales that can’t be predicted. We know Russia is hurting and we must continue the pressure.
There’s more to it than that;
First: not only is the value of Russian crude at an all time low, their diminished refinery capacity has left Russia with no other options but to _buy_ refined fuel from Belarus and China. While Belarus _might_ sell it at a fair price, China has no such obligations, while also being one of the larger markets for Russian crude to begin with. In other words, what little money Russia is making selling crude to China they lose by being forced to buy refined fuel back.
Second: the EU had been Russia’s largest export market during peace time due to the pipeline infrastructure. With that no longer relevant (mostly. Fuck you, Hungary and Slovak), Russia is forced to use ships to offload their crude. Ships which have been under attack as of late, not only reducing available exports, but more importantly driving up the insurance costs of these ships further chipping away at any sort of profits
I am wondering if there are any pipelines that can be sanctioned kinetically in the following weeks.
Sinking more tankers will be the icing on the cake to completely tank their oil economy.
Best news
Taking into account dollar inflation, this is below $20 in 1998 when russia had default.
Brent crude at $60, btw…
While we are at $56
Average production cost of Russian oil in H2, 2021 was **USD $15.60/Bbl**, up from USD $13.50 in 2012 and USD $13.70 in H1, 2021.
If I remember correctly a few years back someone said that Russia needs the price to be around $100 to keep things running in the country.
Which is why Trump is trying his hardest to help Putin out
Yeah good luck getting it out without paying Ukraine s tariff 😂
Does this mean that not only are the Ukrainian hero’s destroying our historic enemy.
But they are also making ruzzia export energy deflation for the world which on one hand is good for the world economy (less so the global temperature).
Love to see it
Oil for weapons is all they have left.
Slava Ukraine.
“Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, representing nearly one-fifth (around 18-20%) of global totals…” Venezuela might actually be the first WW3 battlefield. Cartels work closely and in proxy with China and Russia.
Everything really starts to make more sense when you follow the money. Around 20% of Russia’s GDP comes from oil and gas. Squeezing Russia’s largest export. Escalation 🫡
Further strikes on refineries and shipping can push the production price higher. Once the breakeven point is reached, it’s game over.