Zukunft der KP Chinas: Eine (abfallende) Mehrheit der konservativen Wähler würde Poilievre im Januar als Vorsitzenden behalten
Zukunft der KP Chinas: Eine (abfallende) Mehrheit der konservativen Wähler würde Poilievre im Januar als Vorsitzenden behalten
8 Kommentare
If they don’t get on board for replacing him, it’s going to be hard to try to explain it the next time Carney wins being PM as to why they didn’t turf PP this time around.
Almost like he’s trying to be Robert Stanfield in the 70s, only difference is that Stanfield probably would’ve actually been a pretty good PM in my opinion.
My grand prediction is that he’ll hang on with less than two thirds of the votes (is it a riding points system for the review or one member one vote?) and take that as a resounding majority. This would be in contrast to the convention applied to just about every leadership review in the last 40 years, where anything less than 66-70ish is considered a loss. I don’t think he can dip below 60, at least not by more than a percent or two, but I’m quite sure he’d hang on even if he got 50% + 1 vote.
Becoming PM has been his life’s dream since he was a teenager and he knows as well as anyone that this is his only shot. He will not leave with any modicum of decorum, and he certainly won’t fall on his sword for the sake of the party. Much like his perfect foil Trudeau, it’ll take a devastating rebellion or outright rejection by the membership to remove him. I don’t even think he’d resign if/when he lost the next election.
It’s a catch 22 for the Conservatives.
They need Poilievre because of his impact on right wing voter enthusiasm. That popular vote share he got is nothing to sneeze at.
But the stuff he says in order to boost that enthusiasm makes non-conservatives hate his guts so much that socialist progressives run from the NDP to a Wall Street executive and central banker in order to stop Pierre.
I don’t think it’s realistic to expect today’s conservative voters to become more moderate, and in that case I don’t think there’s any path to victory for them besides hanging on to Pierre and praying for Carney to alienate progressives enough that they go back to the NDP.
It will be in Alberta, most can’t affort the vote (traveling to Alberta for a vote). He will still win, his base is there.
I don’t like Poilievre at all, but I just don’t believe that only 58% of Conservative supporters would keep him. That number seems way too low to be true.
TL;DR:
Survey of CPC voters from last election:
* 58% stay
* 26% go
* 16% not sure
Amongst total population he has a net favourability of -26.
Doug Ford about to make a running cannonball into the CPC pool. He’ll make a huge splash but whether he’ll sink or swim will depend on what happens in January.