Ja, wir verdienen mehr Geld, aber am Ende werden wir weniger Geld haben, das weiß ich.
Warum passiert das?
TLDR: Oracle gibt Milliarden für den Ausbau seiner KI-Infrastruktur aus, um seinen verrückten Deal mit OpenAI zu erfüllen. Das bedeutet RIESIGE Investitionsinvestitionen im Voraus, Vermögenswerte, die das Unternehmen über mehrere Jahre hinweg abschreiben wird. Daher sinkt der freie Cashflow in den ersten Jahren (’26 und ’27), aber der buchhalterische Nettogewinn steigt gemäß GAAP.
Ob dies sinnvoll ist oder nicht und ob sich diese Investitionen auszahlen werden, ist im Wesentlichen der Kern der aktuellen Debatte an den Märkten.
Dieses Diagramm ist im Grunde ein Rorschach-Test, um festzustellen, ob Sie glauben, dass wir uns in einer KI-Blase befinden oder nicht.
Quelle: Bloomberg
Werkzeug: Excel
Von chartr
8 Kommentare
Source: Bloomberg
Tool: Excel
For those who don’t live in the finance world, profit and cash flow are not the same thing. Companies with huge capex requirements, or those that are experiencing tremendous growth, always have cash flow issues.
Not surprising that a software company generally doesn’t have huge capex requirements, but now with the advent of AI and the requirement for huge infrastructure to support the energy needs, that’s no longer the case.
„Whether this makes sense or not, and whether these investments will pay off is essentially the crux of the debate in markets right now“
My bet is on no, but that most of the CEO’s of these respective companies don’t really care much. if they crash the economy and their companies, they just get to retire to some mansion in whatever part of the world they want with their billions of dollars.
Oracle is the government; they’ll be fine.
Reddit: capitalism is broken. Businesses do not invest anymore. They only care about short term profits.
Reddit: why are companies spending all this money? This is very broken. What of these investments are not profitable?
This is how it looks like when a company is making a huge investment
Oracle’s Cash On Hand is $11.2 Billion. So this is not exactly an existential bet on their part.
Source: [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ORCL/oracle/cash-on-hand](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ORCL/oracle/cash-on-hand)
I’m more surprised at Oracle’s growth. In the tech field they have a pretty poor name. I can’t think of a circumstance where I’d use Oracle again voluntarily. Fusion and their DB platforms have better modern offers at lower price points. Going all out on AI seems hi-cost and hi-risk.