[OC] – In diesem Zusammenhang ist ein Sahm-Flip ein weiterer Staat, der im selben Monat die Sahm-Regel anwendet. Ich betrachte dies als einen Indikator für die Geschwindigkeit der wirtschaftlichen Verschlechterung im Zusammenhang mit dem Rezessionsrisiko.
Von soma92oc
5 Kommentare
https://preview.redd.it/j3sw41asno2g1.png?width=552&format=png&auto=webp&s=26169f86f1ddc81fa8c338e6416fdf03bc436d96
Here is the model output if interested.
What’s a stay at home mom rule?
I ran a logistic regression on binary recession indicator, with the main variable of interest being the increase in states meeting the Sahm rule vs. the previous month.
Here is another plot….this is for a project. The previous plot is just the FRED series SAHMREALTIME, with a dashed line at .5 .
The Sahm Rule: (Per the Fed)
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
Applying this rule to smaller economies is (maybe) valid, but I was curious what the trends might show compared to the economy at large.