Was die US-Regierung ablehnt, könnte eine Vogelgrippe-Pandemie auslösen

Hi r/EverythingScience,

We just published a deep-dive investigation into a devastating bird flu outbreak — and how the U.S. government’s failure to control the spread of the deadly virus may spark the next pandemic: [https://www.propublica.org/article/bird-flu-airborne-usda-pandemic](https://www.propublica.org/article/bird-flu-airborne-usda-pandemic)

Here’s a breakdown of what we found:

* By analyzing the genomic data sampled from sick poultry in the region, we traced the outbreak back to its source: a farm called Howe’s Hens in Ohio. Using weather data from late December, when the virus raged at this site, we simulated where dust from the farm could have blown. Our big takeaway: **Where the wind blew, the virus followed**.
* We created a list of over 200 chicken and turkey farms in the 12-mile radius surrounding Howe’s Hens. In the first few weeks of the virus’ spread, we found that farms downwind were 20x as likely to see outbreaks. By mid-March, bird flu had hit 83 farms across six counties and two states, leaving over 20 million chickens dead, most no further than 15 miles from the first infected farm.
* USDA didn’t investigate whether the virus spread over the air here. But eight experts who reviewed our analysis said it posed a plausible scenario, where the wind helped spread the virus from farm to farm.  “It just seems so likely to me that this was an airborne thing,” said Brian McCluskey, former chief epidemiologist with USDA’s agency that oversees the response to bird flu. “I mean, how else would it have moved around so quickly?”
* **There’s a potentially simple solution USDA is avoiding: vaccination**. After a bird flu outbreak in France, researchers there discovered the disease was traveling on dust and aerosols and turned to vaccinating the country’s ducks. The results: A near-total reduction in bird flu cases. While American chickens are routinely vaccinated against all sorts of pathogens, USDA officials haven’t authorized similar efforts for bird flu because they say it could harm trade, echoing arguments by the chicken meat industry.
* Viruses are constantly evolving, and if a person catches bird flu while infected with a seasonal flu, the **pathogens could mutate into a variant** that infects large numbers of people. “The minute it transmits in humans, it’s done,” warned Erin Sorrell, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Howe’s Hens did not respond to a request for comment. A USDA spokesperson said it was “conjecture” to say vaccination would offer flocks better protection from airborne spread than its current strategy, which “remains rooted in real-time data, internationally recognized best practices and a commitment to transparency and continuous improvement.”  The agency told ProPublica it has made no decision on whether to vaccinate hens and has no timeline on when it might announce one — though it is „proactively assessing“ the possibility.

For more on how we did our data analysis, [read our methodology here](https://www.propublica.org/article/methodology-bird-flu-outbreak-ohio-indiana).