Was die Demokratie in Venezuela erfordern würde

Michael Albertus: “A little more than 80 years ago, a group of young military officers joined with Venezuela’s main opposition party to overthrow the country’s ruling dictator. The man who took power, Rómulo Betancourt, became known as the father of Venezuelan democracy. He quickly set to work expanding suffrage, carrying out social and economic reforms, securing oil revenue, and settling European refugees who had fled World War II.

“Betancourt inherited a weak state, reliant on oil revenue, that had nominal institutions and limited experience with democracy. He stacked the government with partisans; other political parties cried foul; and the military got nervous. A coup toppled his government in 1948, and democracy would not reemerge in Venezuela for another decade. By then Betancourt had learned his lesson: He shared power with other major parties, a move that allowed democracy to take root and endure for decades, until its erosion and then collapse under Hugo Chávez after 1999.

“Today there is again talk of regime change in Venezuela. The country’s popular opposition leader, the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, calls President Nicolás Maduro’s rule illegitimate and promises to return the country to democracy. The Trump administration seems inclined to act on her behalf. The administration cut off dialogue with the Maduro regime earlier this month. It then ramped up air strikes against alleged drug-trafficking boats off Venezuela’s coast and offered a $50 million bounty for information that could be used to arrest Maduro. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has massed thousands of U.S. troops, warships, and other military assets off the Venezuelan coast and authorized covert CIA action on the ground. Officials privately concede that these moves are part of an effort to force Maduro from office.

“Unseating an existing regime is hard enough; building a new one to replace it is even more bedeviling. Both Venezuelan and American history is stocked with cautionary tales of regime-change operations gone awry. In today’s Venezuela, the military is dug into power and faces considerable risk if Maduro is ousted. It will be an obstacle to his removal—and even if such an operation succeeds, reestablishing democracy afterward will be very difficult.”

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