Thomas Wright: “Donald Trump is clearly frustrated with his failure to end the Russia-Ukraine war. He thought he could strike a deal with a simple transaction that recognized Russia’s territorial gains and appealed to its economic interests. He did not understand how committed Vladimir Putin was to the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state, or how difficult it would be to compel him to accept anything less.
“Recently President Trump tried to change the dynamic: He told Putin he might give Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, and he tried to berate Volodymyr Zelensky into conceding territory, but both to no avail. Trump canceled a planned summit with Putin, explaining to reporters, ‘We’re going to have to know that we’re going to make a deal. I’m not going to be wasting my time. I’ve always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, but this has been very disappointing.’
“To hear senior Trump-administration officials tell it, they are very close to settling the war, if only the parties would be reasonable. They appear to view the fundamental conflict as simple and susceptible to compromise: Russia wants the remaining land that it does not control in the Donbas; Ukraine wants robust security guarantees. But in fact the problem is much more intractable and difficult than that.
“…Trump will not be able to end the war in the next few months, but he could start to create the military and diplomatic conditions for a successful negotiation later in his term. Doing so wouldn’t even require a radical shift in direction.”
Trump’s trying to convince Ukraine to give up some of its territory in exchange for firm security guarantees and Putin’s commitment not to invade other countries so much reminds of certain events from 1938, it’s both frightening and amusing.
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Thomas Wright: “Donald Trump is clearly frustrated with his failure to end the Russia-Ukraine war. He thought he could strike a deal with a simple transaction that recognized Russia’s territorial gains and appealed to its economic interests. He did not understand how committed Vladimir Putin was to the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state, or how difficult it would be to compel him to accept anything less.
“Recently President Trump tried to change the dynamic: He told Putin he might give Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, and he tried to berate Volodymyr Zelensky into conceding territory, but both to no avail. Trump canceled a planned summit with Putin, explaining to reporters, ‘We’re going to have to know that we’re going to make a deal. I’m not going to be wasting my time. I’ve always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, but this has been very disappointing.’
“To hear senior Trump-administration officials tell it, they are very close to settling the war, if only the parties would be reasonable. They appear to view the fundamental conflict as simple and susceptible to compromise: Russia wants the remaining land that it does not control in the Donbas; Ukraine wants robust security guarantees. But in fact the problem is much more intractable and difficult than that.
“…Trump will not be able to end the war in the next few months, but he could start to create the military and diplomatic conditions for a successful negotiation later in his term. Doing so wouldn’t even require a radical shift in direction.”
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Trump’s trying to convince Ukraine to give up some of its territory in exchange for firm security guarantees and Putin’s commitment not to invade other countries so much reminds of certain events from 1938, it’s both frightening and amusing.