GCs sollten in jedem neuen Lösungsvorschlag nur zwei Optionen gegeben werden (annehmen oder zwei Zustände zulassen).

There are still some very key topics to be discussed with regards to the federalisation so we are still far from the referendum as the two sides still do not agree on some things for example the removal of foreign troops

Nitpicking from the type theory: for any question requiring a boolean answer (have you stopped drinking Cognac in the morning?), for which you don’t like either of answers, there is always the third option, which is `⊥` (bottom type), also called ‚divergence‘.

Which in practical terms means ‚ignore the question‘ or ‚do not provide the answer‘.

If you put to the referendum question with option A or B, and people do not like neither A nor B, they will choose option C: do not come to referendum, and you will have failed referendum.

I’m not in politics here, I’ve just spotted ‚binary option‘ problem.

It is a good negotiating position for TCs. TCs said Yes at the plan of the UN yet they remained under isolation while GCs became members of the EU with the RoC. GCs want to keep TCs trapped in the negotiations while enjoying being recognized and isolating TCs. So we suggest an end to the open-ended negotiations(which is a traditional TC position) so GCs won’t waste our time in non-ending negotiations and an agreement on what happens after the negotiations in case GCs are responsible for the failure.

That’s his arguement, and it’s gonna be convincing to the UN and abroad. I don’t agree with a lot of it, especially for the part about agreeing what happens after a collapse – especially if what happens is a two-state solution. As a principle it will be like agreeing for the divorce before the wedding. Russia has been the only member of the UNSC who was clear that there shouldn’t be external solutions imposed, and rigid deadlines and there won’t be such a statement this time obviously. Another question is that if according to Nami GCs will have two options (federation and partition), will TCs also have two options? Federation and Unitary state?(obviously that’s not realistic). I don’t think the partition part for the GCs is realistic either(and I am sure he knows that) but the goal is to get a positive result in the referendum.

And my opinion on the strict timetable(I love how in greek we have specific vocabulary for these, ασφυκτικά χρονοδιαγράμματα και επιδιαιτησίες) is that it’s clear the negotiations won’t be open ended. This was clear since 2019 at the Guterres-Anastasiades-Akinci meeting, the UN announcement was clear that „This time it will be different“. If we are to continue from Crans Montana as Christodoulides claims to want and as Ozdil claims Erhurmans wants, then the main issue left is the guarantees to reach the strategic agreemennt. After that, if there is a concensus on that, there won’t be much to discuss anyway. The idea is that we negotiate for X months and the remaining gaps are filled by the UN, which is something that reminds us of the Annan Plan however it’s very different since we are talking about arbitration only after agreeing on the strategic agreement that includes the basic principles and addresses the main worries of the communnity for the solution. I don’t think it will be possible not to agree on timeframes(and they may not anounce that on the 10th of June is the deadline but it will exist). We won’t have elections in Cyprus or Turkey till 2028 for the Presidency so there is a lot of time till then (though Guterres term ends at the end of 2026, still enough time to get the process going).

As for having GCs choose between partition or federation I don’t think such a thing will happen. There is no way for NC(or any President) to accept such a thing and it’s also not realistic. How would it possibly work? You would need a whole new negotiation for that(and how would you bind a new president to negotiate such a thing). The truth is TCs don’t need that pre-agreement because if a new referendum fails with GCs saying Yes and TCs saying No things will change. A new rejection on a plan that is the result of free negotiation and not the result of arbitration by the UN(like the Annan Plan) will be a rejection of the Bizonal Bicommunal Federation itself. And if BBF isn’t on the table there must be something else, and unfortunately only partition will stay on the table. It will probably only start with some countries recognizing TRNC but it will also include countries creating connections with TCs without recognizing it – direct flights, direct trade etc. I actually think it’s more realistic to put these on the table as the choice for GCs, if you say No and TCs Yes TCs will get rewarded with a status of acknowledgement and direct relationships with other countries (like Taiwan). And a question is what would happen in the less likely scenario of GC Yes and TC No? (simply the status quo wouldn’t be an option – so I would say the return of Varosha would be a fair step though unlikely for Turkey to accept). I think such a pre-agreement may require as much negotiation as the solution itself.. I do believe that the best way of TCs to achieve partition is by pursuing a solution. By just repeating 2SS day and night like Tatar did you can’t achieve anything. The best chance for partition is for TCs to seek a solution and the International Community to believe that GCs are responsible for not finding it. Which is a scary prospect as a GC – however I don’t think NC will make this easy so you may instead get a federal solution instead which is what I hope:)

What you suggested for TC’s two options isn’t very realistic either but I think TCs are less scared on the NovsYes scenario.

We will have a hard negotiation either without such pre-conditions but I hope common sense will prevail. Whether we like it or not, the status quo will change after a referendum, regardless of its result, whether we like it or not.

Most ironic thing is if Annan plan was accepted there will be around 650 troops from Turkey in island from 2020 BUT instead now there is estimated 65 000 to 100 000 troops stationed to island.

So way to go Cyprus.
GC’s in reality is the biggest supporter of Turkey in practical terms because our polititions are not doing good job and voters doesnt seem to think ahead.