Gavan Reilly: Die heutige Meinungsumfrage zeigt lediglich, wie nahe dieses Áras -Rennen tatsächlich ist
https://gavreilly.substack.com/p/todays-opinion-poll-merely-shows?r=29he9&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Von nitro1234561
Gavan Reilly: Die heutige Meinungsumfrage zeigt lediglich, wie nahe dieses Áras -Rennen tatsächlich ist
https://gavreilly.substack.com/p/todays-opinion-poll-merely-shows?r=29he9&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Von nitro1234561
19 Kommentare
I don’t think he can read polls. 🤔
Edit: I thought it was Jim Gavin saying how close the poll was. My bad.
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Honestly finding it very hard to choose one from three very uninspiring candidates
What about the spoil the vote gang? Are they under undecided as well?
I’m going to vote Connolly. I think Gavan Reilly’s points in this article are very fair, and I also really appreciate his modelling of results. He rightly points out that Jim Gavin is in real trouble here. Barring any major changes, I think it’s going to come down to whether Humphreys can get enough transfers from Gavin. The undecideds may also play a role, as for some reason I think they might go more for the FF or FG candidates than they will for Connolly.
Pity they’re all shite
As long as Connolly doesn’t get in, I really don’t care who gets it. I’d rather either charisma vacuums than her. We don’t need someone so toxic to diplomatic relations
Connelly all day long.
Gavin is sinking, if not already sank. Can’t FF just transfer his support to HH?
Does the population of Ireland want a change or not. Connolly will get my vote, she’s pragmatic, experience and has a sense of humour. It’s about time an alternative Ireland broke through in elections.
The other two stated that Eastern Europe is likely to be invaded by Russia, I’ve never geard such wild stuff, just fear mongering nonsense.
Shouldn’t Gavin be chathed with theft, from stealing money from his tenants. A thief. Vulture.
Connolly for the win
I think the poll represents the fact that Connolly has been successful in energising her base rather than to appealing to the centre.
But the flip side to that is that I reckon that the 32% figure is pretty much the maximum support of her base. I think she’ll struggle to attract as much from the undecideds. I think the bulk of them are centrist voters who haven’t made up their mind between Humphries and Gavin. Put it this way, if FFG put out a unified candidate, I’d say there’d be far fewer undecideds.
With Gavin’s campaign in serious trouble, I think those candidates will probably start to swing towards Humphries. I think a lot of them will be concerned about Connolly’s surprisingly high support and row in behind the likely centrist candidate to beat her.
I haven’t paid close attention to this race but has she addressed her wacko Russian comments at all?
Piss poor selection of candidates to be honest. Connolly is the best of a not so great lot.
If I’m bothered to vote at all, it would be to vote for two of them just to keep Connolly out.
Jim Gavin stating he was in „financial difficulty“ and „stressed“ 16 years ago and cant remember anything. What about the tenant 16 years ago. It was the height of the recession; im sure they were in financial difficulty and stressed too.
Can’t understand how people can vote for Connolly with her views on world politics, especially Russia, and being mates with Daly and Wallace. Proper wacko. Imagine her hosting dignitaries from European countries, sure we are going to hold the EU presidency in the 2nd half of next year. Genuinely how can people want her in that role?!
That’s an interesting take on it. What’s most interesting about it is that it’s not supported by the poll itself.
What the poll actually says is that CC has a strong lead, HH is underperforming and Gavin’s campaign has already collapsed
How in the fk are you folk down across the border honestly even considering Humphries, who’s husband is an Orange Order man? The lads solidly associated with burning the national flag. A lady who has conditionally promised to start learning Irish only if she is voted in – a promise she has made in past elections BTW and failed to do so. Does that show she gives a shit? Married to a man who sees us all as dog shit on the bottom of his boot and not arsed enough about the language to even pretend to care. The orange order connection alone should make her a non starter – it’s a supremacist organisation.
The other options being a dodgy landlord, or an experienced politician who clearly cares about Irish culture, heritage, and morality.
Race? good one I don’t remember voting for any of them let alone one of them.