Die Hamas konfrontiert ihre letzte rote Linie

>For Hamas, after two ruinous years of war, it is the impossible choice. A ceasefire — but only at the cost of humiliation: accepting a US-led plan that demands disarmament and an end to any future role in Gaza.

>One person familiar with the group’s thinking described it as an “existential moment”. Others in Gaza see only bad options for a group whose leverage, for decades, has come from unwavering defiance. Hamas leaders have said they are studying the proposal [brokered by US President Donald Trump](https://www.ft.com/content/7c80077b-4045-4feb-a286-24cf643436c9) and supported by Israel. But pressure on the militant group, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, is building from every direction. Should it reject the plan, the consequences are plain. In Gaza, Israel would continue an offensive. Most of the enclave has been reduced to rubble, more than 66,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to local authorities, and a famine declared in August. More than 90 per cent of the population has been displaced multiple times, many ending up in tents.

>The Islamists stand isolated at home and regionally: in Gaza many blame it for bringing down on them the destructive might of Israel’s military machine after its attack on October 7 2023. Hamas leaders are also being pressured by Arab and Muslim states, including the more friendly Qatar and Turkey, to accept the US-Israeli proposal. Growing numbers of experts claim Israel is committing genocide, an accusation it vociferously denies.

>Exhausted Gazans traumatised by [war](https://www.ft.com/middle-east-war) and loss are desperate for a ceasefire and a chance to rebuild their lives. Many have urged Hamas on social media to accept Israel’s terms. “People want the genocide to stop,” said Mustafa Ibrahim, a political analyst in Gaza. “The humanitarian situation is disastrous and we know Trump has given Israel a green light to continue if the plan is rejected. People hope Hamas will accept it even if it is a bad deal.” In a social media post, the Gaza-based poet Nima Hasan said Hamas should agree this time: “It knows its adventure has come to an end. Killings continue in Gaza and the bombing has not stopped for a moment. Accepting now means the losses would be less than later.”

>Diplomats say Hamas, which is proscribed as a terrorist group in the US and the EU and whose late leaders were sought for war crimes, has accepted it will never govern Gaza. But until recently it made clear relinquishing its weapons was a red line, only to be contemplated during integration into the armed forces of an independent Palestinian state — something that Israel says it will never allow. “It really is a moment of reckoning for Hamas,” said Amjad Iraqi, analyst at the International Crisis Group. “They know they’re heavily beat. At the same time, they have a lot of strategic concerns about what the Israelis will do, what the Americans will do, and they are also trying to survive as a movement.” Israeli officials believe they have destroyed much of Hamas’s military formation and depleted the group’s weapons. Thousands of its estimated 30,000 fighters have been killed, as has most of its senior military leadership, including Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 attacks. From the prewar military leadership in Gaza, only Izz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of the group’s armed wing, remains alive.

>Meanwhile, its surviving political leadership abroad is busy negotiating long-standing tensions between Hamas’s military and political wings, which are coming to a head as the group reckons with its future survival. “It’s not the same Hamas as on October 7, it’s much weaker,” said Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer specialised in Palestinian affairs. “But it knows how to adapt and is still the most dominant force in Gaza, not just militarily but also in terms of governance.” Hamas has retained some command and control as well as top-down decision-making, and has appointed new leaders, analysts say, regrouping in Gaza City over the past year. It has also been forced to shift from military formations to guerrilla warfare tactics. “The [Israeli] army keeps going back to certain towns, especially north, over and over again, saying it’s cleaned out Hamas, and then it turns out they have to go back again,” said Iraqi. “It’s clear that there is some fight there. It’s just not necessarily one that’s tilting the balance of power.”

I was surprised how reasonable Trump’s deal was. Seems to give everyone what they want. Except Hamas that is, but even Hamas would be given amnesty in the deal as long as they disarm.

There is no logical reason for this war to continue. Hopefully Hamas comes to that conclusion, for the good of the people they claim to represent.

This might be the strangest “genocide” in history where the supposed victims have so much say over everything