Angus Reid Institute: LPC 38, CPC 40
Elbows? Maybe. But Carney approval definitely down, vote intention returns to near tie
Angus Reid Institute: LPC 38, CPC 40
Elbows? Maybe. But Carney approval definitely down, vote intention returns to near tie
9 Kommentare
* **Carney’s** **approval** stands at 51%, that’s down 5 points in a month; his disapproval is up 7 (to 41%).
* **Voting intentions:** The CPC has a slight lead 40-38
* **Poilievre’s** **popularity** is effectively unchanged since the last poll (58 unfavourable – 36 favourable)
* **Trade:** Growing lack of confidence in Canada’s ability to get a deal, slightly more support for dropping counter tariffs than keeping
This is the second poll to have the Conservatives ahead by 2 recently, although Abacus Data (the first) said their poll coming out Sunday will have a „slight LPC lead.“
Liason this week found a LPC +9 lead, while Mainstreet Research found LPC +2. Nanos‘ rolling poll (over a four week period) still has the Liberals ahead by double digits.
At the very least, I think we can say the PM’s honeymoon is thawing. The Liberals appear to have reached a ceiling and are coming down from it — it’s the speed at which they are coming down that’s unclear.
The spin in this is incredible.
Trying to bend over backwards burying the lede with PP’s favorability showing that 58% look poorly upon him.
Interesting that 53% of (I assume) 2025 Liberal voters either view removing most of the counter tariffs on the US as the wrong move, or is uncertain about its prospects.
It’s interesting that the polls seem to be diverging into a ’statistical tie‘ and ‚massive LPC lead‘ camps, but I don’t think it should be too surprising if the shine comes off the Carney government relatively quickly, either. Carney was able to reset the Liberal’s political fortunes but this was partly on the idea that he’d be more suited to handling Trump/standing up for Canada, but as we’re ending the summer, that really hasn’t happened.
It’s not surprising between the Air Canada strike and the lack of a deal, plus dropping the countertariffs. Many Canadians feel discouraged and disappointed.
I expected the numbers to be a bit worse than this to be honest. If not much changes, the numbers will probably level off around here.
C-5 also boosted his popularity for a while.
The data fits with Abacus. Angus has a huge sample.
Poilievre will be excited about throwing more attacks.
>The CPC hold the slightest of leads as 40 per cent say they would vote for that party in an election, compared to 38 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP are the largest beneficiaries in these new data, with 10 per cent saying they would vote for the party as it searches for a new leader. This four-point increase from the election result of six per cent appears to be driven by one-in-10 (9%) of those who voted Liberal saying they would now support the NDP.
In the month or so leading up to the election, the NDP were consistently polling-in-aggregate in the 8%-9% range.
Once votes were actually cast, the NDP pulled just 6.3% of the vote.
Some of those votes went blue, others went red-or-ABC, and to my knowledge we don’t have data that reliably shows exactly which went where, but it was another Angus Reid poll that showed that of those who switched their vote to the Liberals, 90% viewed CPC leader Pierre Poilievre unfavourably, while 52% said this of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, and 30% of those switching their vote towards the Liberals say they did so because the party represented the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election.
Point is, when it’s just an opinion poll, soft-NDP supporters identify their true preference, but when they go to the ballot box, a lot of them vote strategically, and in April this translated to about half a million votes, in an election where half a million votes was probably enough to change the outcome.
[removed]
This is the 2nd pollster showing CPC lead and 3rd showing CPC and LPC within statistical tie. It just means that Carney honeymoon era is coming to an end.
People are much more willing to check NDP on a pointless poll than they are on an election ballot with real stakes.