Solarstrom schlägt immer wieder Vorhersagen [OC]
Von cavedave
![Solarstrom schlägt immer wieder Vorhersagen [OC]](https://www.bytesde.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/1g6n1u9fobmf1-1536x1013.png "Solarstrom schlägt immer wieder Vorhersagen [OC]")
Solarstrom schlägt immer wieder Vorhersagen [OC]
Von cavedave
12 Kommentare
Data [from IEA](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/world-energy-outlook_20725302.html) and ember-energy
Original was for capacity it is [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-03/energy-power-solar-leave-nuclear-in-the-shade/104049276) and i wanted to make an updated version using actual production that others could update and mod. [Python code and data are here](https://github.com/cavedave/Solar/blob/main/README.md)
They are dumb. Adoption is exponential yet they still think linear…
Why is the black line in the plot labelled „(projected)“ but in the legend called actual generation?
Yellow lines are prediction?
I’ve seen this graph a few times over the last couple of days, but I think I like this version the most. It clearly outlines the past predictions still reaching into our current future and how the actual adoption has constantly outperformed them (and in all likelihood will continue to do so).
For most places solar energy is already a complete no-brainer both from the perspective of cost as well as resilience. The only issue we will increasingly have to face is the inherent volatility of solar energy generation, which will require better storage and/or a clever energy mix and distribution – nothing that can’t be overcome. Currently the only problem is the unfounded ideological opposition against solar energy by irrational governments, especially in the world’s largest economy.
This is a good thing, right? Reddit?
What does each of the yellow lines represent?
The yellow lines need some sort of labeling. I’m assuming the lower projections are earlier projections? Would be helpful to know which year they were projected.
IAEA is a Fossil Energy lobby club. They constantly predict the prices and production of everything wrong, to make politicians worldwide believe, that nuclear and fossils are the way to go.
One example that really proves this: To be a member of the IAEA a country needs to have a strategic oil reserve of 90 days worth of consumption.
If you read something from the IAEA forget it, it’s bullshit paid by the oil dictators and fossil companies.
Do they have a cheap excel version that only supports linear models? They should try exponential for a change
What happened in 2019? That year is the only one clearly not following an exponential curve and looks like a major setback. Or was 2018 unusually good in some way that didn’t help future adoption?
data scientists doing linear regression ffs