This is a series of charts analyzing the accuracy of the initial/preliminary total non-farm payroll estimates in the BLS monthly jobs report. The comparison is to actual counts from the QCEW, which is based on mandatory unemployment insurance filings.
![Wie genau sind die ersten BLS -Jobsschätzungen? [OC]](https://www.bytesde.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/wsmrtzqfyckf1-770x1024.jpg "Wie genau sind die ersten BLS -Jobsschätzungen? [OC]")
1 Kommentar
This is a series of charts analyzing the accuracy of the initial/preliminary total non-farm payroll estimates in the BLS monthly jobs report. The comparison is to actual counts from the QCEW, which is based on mandatory unemployment insurance filings.
[Blog post has more details](https://blog.waldrn.com/p/the-bls-jobs-numbers-are-actually) on the results.
Tools used were R for data analysis and d3.js for charts. All [available here](https://github.com/dawaldron/ces-accuracy/settings).