Diplomatie oder Defiance: Die Herrscher des Iran sind nach der Wahl der US-israelischen Streiks ausgesetzt

Two central pillars of Iran’s security perception have been undermined since its war with Israel: First, its nuclear program has suffered a severe blow, and second, the “resistance camp” of its regional proxies has been weakened to the point that, for now, it cannot stand by Iran’s side. Tehran must now formulate its nuclear policy under intense time pressure, caught between President Trump’s ultimatum and the threat from the European countries (the E3) to renew the UN Security Council sanctions by activating the “snapback” clause. Both deadlines converge at the end of this month.

Returning to negotiations with Washington would mean admitting the utter failure of its current policy and giving up its uranium enrichment, something Iran refuses to do. But failing to reach an agreement with the United States would lead to renewed and potentially heightened sanctions while also leaving open the risk of another attack. In this strategic deadlock, Iran has no good options. Israel prefers no agreement, partly out of concerns that any new deal would be worse than the previous one. However, this scenario would leave both Israel and Iran in a state of uncertainty and without the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency, while Iran’s motivation to acquire a nuclear weapon continues to grow.

Iran is experiencing one of its most severe water crises in recent years. [Dam levels in Iran have dropped to historic lows](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-tehran-water-crisis-satellite-image-2112832), and the country is nearing „day zero,“ where water supplies could run out entirely. The situation is exacerbated by prolonged droughts, mismanagement, and overconsumption. In addition to water shortages, Iranians are enduring daily power outages, since most electricity in the country is generated using water.