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    Wie ein ACL -Tränen die Karriere eines NFL -Spielers verändert [OC]
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    Wie ein ACL -Tränen die Karriere eines NFL -Spielers verändert [OC]

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    1. Natac_orb on

      I see a plot depicting points over time. Grey and blue lines go up and down and all cross the one point line at the same x axis point in time. There is a black line for the average.
      I do not see where any of these lines go after the injury year since they all have the same colour scheme.
      I learn nothing from it.
      I suggest clustering all lines starting from 0-0.5, 0.5-1, 1-1.5, 1.5-2 and show the average from them in different colours

    3. jesuisjens on

      Does each line represent a specific player? Why are the lines so smooth? How did anyone managed to tear an ACL and get better within the first 6 month!?

    4. Mirar on

      I don’t get much from this either. Where is the actual data points on this, is it at the year marking and spline between them?

      It would be interesting to compare people with similar data before the injury to people that didn’t get injured. What impact did the injury have, compared to people with similar career without the injury?

    5. reichjef on

      It’s honestly a miracle what they can do with acl surgery now a days. In the past, that was a walk with a cane for the rest of your life type injury. Now, it can be fixed and people can go on to live normal, non debilitated lives.

    6. FrozenToonies on

      That black line average curve? Doesn’t seem right. Because if 75% dipped out to never come back and 5% climbed high to just crash doesn’t make a middle road.

    7. Clemario on

      So many lines ended a year after injury. Does that mean they played 1 more year and they’re done?

    8. g_spaitz on

      An actual good looking graph. Nice. (Btw people in here only complain these days)

    9. Lord_Smedley on

      As a professional data analyst*, I’d like to share a couple comments based on the data presented here.

      1. If you’re an NFL player, you want to avoid tearing your ACL.
      2. That’s unless you’re Saquon Barkley, who clearly ought to tear his ACL on the last play of every season.

      *Not really a professional data analyst.

    10. theNorrah on

      It’s interesting, without a doubt. But I leave with more questions, and I am not a paid member, so I can’t read the article.

      As someone who likes data but has zero interest in NFL, it does not really explain enough for me to understand the consequences of an ACL-rupture. But here’s my questions/notes:

      Not being able to differentiate the lines makes it incredibly difficult to decipher.

      I assume the curves aren’t factual? Since a few people seems to have slightly better stats right after the tear? Straight lines ‚might‘ be better for accuracy (or depiction of resolution). But not important. Just a note.

      A baseline would be great to understand the impact. Not the „average recovery“, as depicted. How does the average healthy players stats compared to this? This would require that we can determine an average year in which the players get said rupture (so we can anchor it to the injury year), but I think it is somewhat required to understand the „average“. For all I know, ruptures happen at the late stages of careers, where people tend to stop (play worse) anyway. But yet again, not an important note.

      My key question is however:

      Right now, it reads as a rapid career ender, with a borderline random outcome if you get through it.

      … the average line does not depict that. Considering only four people made it to year 4 (maybe five; whoever that Saquon dude is, he’s off the charts). So we can assume the rest essentially went to zero; after two to three years.

      The rest being filtered out kinda means it’s not an average prognosis. It’s the average progression IF you make it that far. The true prognosis for the 14+ other people is a lot worse than the average depicts. But again, I don’t know how it compares to an average NFL player. Maybe they stay 6 seasons instead of 3. Maybe they don’t.

      Interesting nonetheless. I wrote all these words because of it, so thanks for the graph.

    12. Kaeed_RN on

      This graph has an enormous survival bias.

      Looking at it it seems that on the long term break your ACL is a good thing, but in reality it’s the end of most career.

      It’s complicated to make a good graph out of this because probably you should consider position, age of the player and I don’t know what else and compare it to players who haven’t been injured

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