![[OC] Demokraten führt jetzt um +3,8% im generischen Stimmzettel Durchschnitt](https://www.bytesde.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/cyy5htney7gf1-1024x684.png "[OC] Demokraten führt jetzt um +3,8% im generischen Stimmzettel Durchschnitt")
Demokraten führen jetzt um +3,8% im allgemeinen Stimmzettel durchschnittlich: https://open.substack.com/pub/smokeFilledroom/p/which-party-is-on-track-t-win-the?r=2w9tr1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showwelcomeonshare=false
Von Alternative-Rate-379
28 Kommentare
Polls were collected from Mary Radcliffe (fmr. 538)’s polling database. [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_y0_LJmSY6sNx8qd51T70n0oa_ugN50AVFKuJmXO1-s/edit?gid=2042605142#gid=2042605142](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_y0_LJmSY6sNx8qd51T70n0oa_ugN50AVFKuJmXO1-s/edit?gid=2042605142#gid=2042605142)
And come election season Republicans will talk about violent immigrant caravans and how the economy is actually Democrats fault, and Democrats will fumble and try and appeal to centrists and say „Maybe not all Israeli citizens are terrible people“ so everyone will screech about how Democrats support genocide, and liberals will protest vote, and dead Republicans will vote twice, and we’ll end up with a third Trump term.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Haven’t trusted a poll since 2016. I have zero faith in the democrats being competent on messaging come election season
If the best the Democrats can do at this point in time is a roughly 3% lead, possibly 1% if you account for error, RIP.
Still too damn close. How can anyone still support the Republican platform at this point, let alone over **40%** of people? Wake the f up, people!
Oh good. That’s only 1.2% short of what they need to get to the minimum [5% overall performance](https://goodauthority.org/news/how-many-votes-do-the-democrats-need-to-retake-the-house-maybe-less-than-you-think/) required for Democrats to take the house.
And that’s before TX redistricts.
The fact that they ONLY lead with 3.8 tells you everything you need to know about Republican voters: They are all hatefull evil pedophiles.
But if all the seats gerrymandered impact diluted. Could help in a few senate races hopefully.
Is that „beautiful data“ or data that you like?
On the content of the data, yeah congratulations to D on barely polling better than… this 🤮
Generic ballots are not very useful to predict anything, especially over a year before the midterms. Midterms are generally determined by turnout in the US. The D lost in 2024 because D voters stayed home
Hahaha remember when every single poll said that Hillary and Kamala are going to win the election?
The democrats aren’t even gaining share, it’s just republicans losing share
Don’t worry, it will magically tighten in the months leading up to a real election.
They’ll still find a way to shoot themselves in the foot.
Pathetic to not have 60%+ in the face of true fascism.
Is this supposed to be uplifting?
They are building concentration camps and they still hold over 40% of the vote share?
If anything that tells us that this country should be swallowed by the sea and never returned
How do they do after Elon runs the results through Starlink?
Imagine being the party opposed to this Orange Nazi fuck, and *only* having a 3.8% advantage.
Watch how both parties respond to Mamdani, there’s your answer as to why working classes are fucked.
The DNC must change.
Get ready to lose more rights.
If you can’t absolutely bury the ghastly obvious pedophiles.. there’s something wrong with you and your staff.. and your voters. The fuck.
Texas is redistricting so democrats there will potentially lose 5 seats. Which most likely means that republicans will hold the House.
So, democrats need much larger margins to win.
Fucking yawn. A 3.8% polling average lead is nothing. My reaction to this graph is „that’s it?“.
They’ll find a way to fuck it up.
If Democrats would stfu about transexuals and focus on working class issues they might get above 50%, but it’ll never happen. They are so focused on inclusivity they ironically alienate the majority of America (which are a bunch of rural bumpkins).
I’m not paying attention to polls ever again after this last election. Hate shows up to the ballots. That’s all you can count on
A 3.8% lead is absurd considering everything that’s happened since January.
It’s also not enough to secure a majority in the House because of gerrymandering, or the Senate.
Democrats are the slightly less evil version of Republicans.
polls are useless , all those companies should be out of business
Its in the general polls. None of which matters in the swing states or any Republican state that threatens to vote Democrat. Just like in 2024 voter turnout will be the predictor as to who wins.