‚Climateflation‘ könnte bis 2050 um mehr als ein Drittel in die britischen Lebensmittelpreise steigern, heißt es in Bericht | Zunehmend extremes Wetter eine Bedrohung für Produktions- und Versorgungsketten in Großbritannien und anderswo

From the article: Britain is at risk of a worsening “climateflation” crisis amid the fallout from increasingly extreme weather that could drive up food prices by more than a third by 2050.

Sounding the alarm over the financial impact for UK households, the Autonomy Institute thinktank said that climate-induced price increases for everyday food items risked pushing almost 1 million people into poverty without urgent government intervention.

It said the UK was at elevated risk – particularly from heatwaves and droughts – of food production and supply chains abroad and at home being disrupted, which would have a knock-on impact for consumers through higher prices in the shops.

Official figures earlier this month showed the UK’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected to 3.6% in June, as fuel and food prices added to the pressure on households.

Britain’s largest retailers have warned hot, dry weather had reduced fruit and vegetable harvest yields, adding to last month’s inflation rate. The price of chocolate on UK supermarket shelves has also been pushed up by poor harvests linked to extreme temperatures in west Africa, while coffee prices have been pumped up by bad weather hitting production in Brazil and Vietnam.

Drawing together climate data, analysis of international and domestic trade flows, and economic modelling, the Autonomy researchers said that increasing numbers of heatwaves and droughts would imperil staple crops, disrupt supply chains and intensify inflationary pressures.

Scientists say climate breakdown caused by the burning of fossil fuels means more frequent floods and droughts are likely in the UK. Food prices worldwide have also been affected by poor harvests, conflict and Donald Trump’s trade wars.

With almost half of food consumed in the UK imported from overseas, British households are highly vulnerable to climate shocks hitting the price of groceries from key producers in countries including Spain, France and Brazil.

This kind of study is valuable in determining how this important factor will be affected over time. 

But we have to remember it’s focusing on only one important factor. Which is good. But it’s also not a “full” picture of how things will look in the future. 

i would also be interested in a study that looks at the potential impact that robotics, and/or genetic engineering will have on production and pricing over the next 25 years *combined with* this estimated climate impact. And even then that’s only a couple/few factors. 

These studies are importantly but they’re not really a window into the future, just a hint at it.