Battle River-Crowfoot-Kandidaten prognostizieren eine härter
https://calgaryherald.com/news/battle-river-crowfoot-candidates-pierre-poilievre-byelection
Battle River-Crowfoot-Kandidaten prognostizieren eine härter
https://calgaryherald.com/news/battle-river-crowfoot-candidates-pierre-poilievre-byelection
3 Kommentare
The nature of these by-elections is that enthusiasm dominates. I suspect the average non-Conservative supporter will be a lot more motivated to humiliate Poilievre (again) than the average Conservative supporter will be to send him to the Hill.
Which probably means that Poilievre wins a comfortable victory rather than a blowout, given the makeup of Battle-River Crowfoot. There’s a reason he’s running in the safest riding in the country.
It’s almost impossible for him to lose (hence why they chose that riding), but I would laugh my ass off if it happened.
The other thing though is that if he loses this seat or makes it to and loses the next federal election, I’m not sure what happens to the CPC after he leaves. The party has an identity/policy crisis where it’s becoming increasingly defined by what it’s opposing rather than what it’s offering the country. It worked for Poilievre because he was able to energize the base’s anger and became leader during a cost of living crisis that contributed to making the previous government extremely unpopular, but the party can’t bank of those specific circumstances to win elections regularly etc.
The problem for Poilievre is expectations management.
When the previous Tory MP won with 80% of the vote in April, expectations management is near impossible and if he gets 60% of the vote it’ll looks like a stinging rebuke.
I don’t think the loser stench is going to go away. If Poilievre does end up winning by a smaller margin than his predecessor did in April it’ll confirm he is a potentially fatal drag on his party and their election prospects.