Das Jubel in Israel ist verfrüht

Gershom Gorenberg: “In Israel, the war is over, and not over at all. In the two weeks since the cease-fire with Iran, praise for the Israeli military has been nearly unanimous within the country. Opposition politicians spoke of ‘clear’ and ‘stunning’ accomplishments by the Israel Defense Forces and the Mossad intelligence agency. That some Iranian missiles evaded Israel’s defenses has largely faded from the news.

“Operationally, the Israeli campaign was indeed impressive. For 12 days, the Israeli air force ruled Iranian skies without losing a single plane. Any euphoria, however, is premature and discordant. Iran has not vanished as an enemy. And the routine state of affairs to which Israel has returned is not peacetime, but continuing war in Gaza.

“One reason to avoid triumphalism is that the war’s effect is still not clear and could in the long run be the opposite of what Israel seeks. Precisely how much damage Iranian nuclear installations sustained from the Israeli bombing and the brief, fierce U.S. attack remains the subject of conflicting assessments. Meir Litvak, of Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, told me that ‘if Israel’s goal was to completely destroy the entire nuclear project, it has not succeeded.’ As a result, Litvak stressed, ‘the danger now is redoubled’: Iran will most likely rebuild its facilities, and its motivation to develop a nuclear weapon will have increased.

“… Indeed, one reason conflicts escalate is that each side sees its actions as unavoidable responses to the other’s aggression. From an Israeli perspective, the clandestine efforts over many years to keep Iran from creating a bomb were reasonably understood as defensive moves against an extreme danger. The risk that Israel’s actions could actually push Iran’s leaders to accelerate its nuclear program has been strikingly absent from Israeli public debate.

“What Iran will do now that Israel and the United States have unleashed their firepower on its nuclear sites remains to be seen. But here is one clue: President Masoud Pezeshkian has approved a law that ends cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and bars United Nations inspectors from Iran’s nuclear facilities. This move suggests the possibility that Iran will push past threshold status and become an overt nuclear power. If that happens, the June war may well be remembered as another escalatory step.”

Read more: [https://theatln.tc/JeubSBYP](https://theatln.tc/JeubSBYP)