Auszug: " … für 2024 hatte die Vereinten Nationen in Kolumbien 701.000 Geburten projiziert; Es hatte die Wahrscheinlichkeit gegeben, dass die Anzahl der Geburten bei nur 2,5 Prozent weniger als 553.000 lag. Am Ende erlebte Kolumbien im Jahr 2024 nur 445.000 Geburten. Dies führte zu einer Fruchtbarkeitsrate von 1,06 Geburten pro Frau, die mehr als die Hälfte gegenüber 2008 zurückging. Chiles ist noch niedriger: Bei aktuellen Raten können 100 Chilener im reproduktiven Alter erwarten, 52 Kinder und nur 27 Enkelkinder zu haben."
Gift Article "The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard—It’s Worse" (The Atlantic, 06/30/2025)
byu/JoePNW2 inFuturology
6 Kommentare
Oh no … fewer people. It’s too bad we don’t have technologies to replace menial labor and communications systems that would allow everyone to contribute to a global forum of ideas …
the transition to fewer people will have some issues, but in the long run, it is a good thing
birth projections beeing of?
in an unstable region with spoty zensus?
this reminds me of back when they prognosed woman in sports will soon jump 10meters because they were closing in on male records so fast after… well, beeing allowed to do sports.
I find it hard to care much about this. I realize this has huge socioeconomic consequences, but with the swing towards authoritarianism, lack of progress on climate change prevention/mitigation, and rise of AI, the world isn’t going to be very friendly for the next few generations anyway. I don’t have the emotional bandwidth to care about this too. Besides, the solution(s) to this dilemma will likely require careful study, logical decision making, and trust by the populace in our leadership to make the right decisions: none of which are going to happen. Just toss this on the pile of global upheavals and we’ll try to suffer through with the rest of it.
This is a good thing… maybe not for capitalism, but capitalism is on its way out anyway with the rise of automation and AI. We won’t need as many people in the coming decades to keep the economic machine churning.
I have stated in past reddit comments that the UN population models are very „aggressively“ optimistic. Modeling is not helped due to the fact the UN has to use statistics provided by nations which we know are false: Russia and China being 2 of the culprits but there are others.
I wish I had bookmarked it but I recall some demographic data that suggested peak population could now occur somewhere in the 2045 – 2056 timeframe. I would not be surprised at all. Nations such as China and India are being hit hard let alone the obvious ones like Japan, South Korea and much of the EU. I genuinely wonder where we will be at 2100.