Wie Russland ein Vakuum in Europa ausnutzen könnte: Die Gefahren eines schnellen Abstands in amerikanischen Streitkräften
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-russia-could-exploit-vacuum-europe
Wie Russland ein Vakuum in Europa ausnutzen könnte: Die Gefahren eines schnellen Abstands in amerikanischen Streitkräften
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-russia-could-exploit-vacuum-europe
3 Kommentare
[SS from essay by Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. From 2015 to 2018, she was Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council; Jim Townsend, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. From 2009 to 2017, he served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy; and Kate Johnston, Associate Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.]
The NATO summit held two weeks ago in The Hague delivered on the low expectations the allies had set for it. Amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump would blow up a normal agenda, NATO leaders significantly pared back the program, taking hard discussions on issues such as support for Ukraine, NATO’s relations with Russia, and Russian hybrid attacks in Europe off the table. But the summit did close with a historic agreement by most allies, Spain being a notable exception, to increase members’ defense spending to five percent of GDP over the next ten years**,** with 3.5 percent earmarked for core military spending and 1.5 percent for hardening civilian infrastructure and overall resilience. The pledge to spend more on defense, in addition to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s sycophantic praise of Trump at the summit, smoothed the way for Trump to stick largely to the summit’s highly choreographed script, keeping the alliance’s cohesion intact. Trump even appeared to leave The Hague with a newfound appreciation for NATO members, telling reporters: “These people really love their countries. It’s not a rip-off, and we’re here to help them.”
Any sense of relief among the allies, however, may be short-lived. The relatively positive headlines coming out of the summit obscure the storm brewing across the Atlantic. The [Trump administration](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/topics/trump-administration) is undertaking a sweeping force posture review slated for release in late summer or early fall that could fundamentally reshape the U.S. military’s global footprint. If that process results in a significant and swift reduction of U.S. forces in Europe, an outcome that administration officials have publicly suggested is possible, the alliance will become more vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
(US aligned) Europe has like 3x the population of Russia, a much larger army, and vastly more extensive industrial and economic base to draw from. Russia on the other hand has suffered catastrophic material and demographic losses at the hands of Europe’s poorest nation armed with NATO hand me downs and raw Ukrainian fury.
I get that pretending Russia is some unstoppable juggernaut gets ad views but can we just live in the real world? If Europe finds itself outmatched in any way by Russia it’s due to their refusal to rearm, not because the US is pivoting to the Pacific.
Assad fell down. That had to indirectly hurt Russia. If the U.S. and Israel escalate tensions with Iran as well, this would destabilize Russia even more too. There are several factors to consider. I still don’t think Trump will completely pull the cord, he’ll just be more stubborn and lazy similar to Orban when it comes to NATO contributions.