Quebec Provincial Survey, Juni 2025

These numbers could well result in a PQ majority government with popular vote in the 25-28% range, which would obviously be outrageous. I think what is more likely to happen is that as the election gets closer, the anti-PQ voters will coalesce around one of the other parties instead of staying this split to block Plamondon. He’s just too extreme and churlish to be premier material to like 70% of voters, so you will see similar to a Poilievre effect.

I think the Liberals and Rodriguez is most likely, but I also have to wonder how long is Legault going to hold out and insist on leading into a certain defeat. I think a new CAQ leader without Legault’s baggage or negatives could completely shake up the dynamic.