Wird der Iran die Straße von Hormuz schließen?

The possibility of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is a critical question with far-reaching implications for the global economy. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through this narrow waterway, and any disruption could send energy markets into chaos.

In the context of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the risk of closure seems increasingly plausible. Israel’s long-term goal appears to be regime change in Iran, and it is unlikely to accept any agreement that leaves Iran with the capacity to develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran, having seen what happens when agreements are undermined or abandoned, may now believe that developing nuclear weapons is essential to ensure regime survival. This dynamic makes de-escalation extremely difficult.

If Israel finds it difficult to directly eliminate the Iranian regime, it may resort to crippling Iran economically by targeting its oil infrastructure. If these strikes significantly reduce Iran’s ability to export oil, Tehran may reason that closing the Strait of Hormuz won’t cost them much more—and it could force international actors to pressure Israel to halt its campaign. Alternatively, if Iran senses its regime is on the brink of collapse, it may attempt to shut the strait as a last-ditch effort to draw global attention and intervention.

However, there are strong counterarguments. Iran depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its own vital imports, including food and refined petroleum products. Shutting it down would further damage its already fragile economy. Iran also has to consider China—a major Iranian trading partner and oil buyer—who would strongly oppose any disruption to global energy flows. Furthermore, closing the strait would almost certainly invite military retaliation from the United States, which has long viewed the free flow of Gulf oil as a vital strategic interest.

So, will Iran actually shut down the Strait of Hormuz? While it may seem like a desperate but logical option in a worst-case scenario, the strategic costs are enormous. That said, if the stakes for the Iranian regime become existential, desperation may outweigh caution.

My two cents is US won’t join the war because Iran has the potential to shut down the straight and seriously disrupt the US economy. Iran won’t attack the US or shut down the straight because they don’t want the US in the war which would definitely lead to regime change.

If they do it won’t be for long. There are many nations out there who will work together to clear it rapidly.