Die wirkliche Bedrohung des Iran: Teherans gefährlichste Option für die Reaktion auf Israel

[SS from the essay by Kenneth M. Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute, a former CIA Persian Gulf military analyst, and former Director for Persian Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council.]

Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.

Iran has limited options to respond directly. The danger, however, is that Israel has opened a Pandora’s box: the worst Iranian response might also be the most likely, a decision to withdraw from its arms control commitments and build nuclear weapons in earnest. Containing those furies over the long term is likely to be the real challenge for both Israel and the United States. If the two parties fail, the Israeli gamble could ensure a nuclear-armed Iran rather than preventing one.