Matt Gurney: Pierre Poilievre und die Konservativen müssen herausfinden, was sie versenkt hat. Es wird nicht so einfach sein, wie Sie vielleicht denken

Idk I think they can form a minority government with PP at any point. Who knows how long this government will last. It’s a strong minority, but it’s still a minority.

The message conservatives push is a compelling one. „The other guys waste your money!“ That will convince a lot of people. It’s always attractive.

Pretty straightforward IMO, running a campaign based on criticism of the opposition instead of promoting alternatives and of course the bad fortune of Donald Trump being so vile to move the needle in basically every western nation from right to left (even more so in Canada with the 51st state bullshit). Also PP just comes across like an asshole.

I mean, it is pretty easy.

Wanna know how I know?

Because Carney is basically a progressive conservative and he got voted in.

They have no interest in that. They’re going to run the same program on Carney that they ran on hillary and trudeau, and everybody else. It’s the IDU playbook, and they’re following it step by step.

There’s no need for introspection if you can demonize your enemy. Just look at the nutty ideas already spreading amongst your Qonvoy relatives. They would much rather believe in conspiracies than compromise on anything. Frankly, they are much more interested in outrage than policy.

Whatever Carney does, they’ll hate it.

The only thing that the CPC need to change They need to detach themselves from western grievance politics. the westerners can have their grievances, but they have no right to hijack the national right of center party.

They don’t have to be an alternative liberal party and adopt liberal policies, but they need to behave like a national party instead of being regional.

They were still riding that wave that would normally have put them into office, but the truth of the matter and most likely the largest reason is they ran into a competent opponent at the right time (for voters) and people were really willing to give Carney a chance regardless of how many slogans and „but doesn’t everything suck?!?“ speeches Pierre could give.

Great look by Gurney, getting to the heart of the problem: it’s not that the Conservative campaign failed to meet the benchmarks and goals that a reasonable campaign should set for itself.

It won more and a higher percentage of the vote than the party ever has.

It improved its support across the whole country.

It forced the Overton window in its direction.

It seized a demographic advantage.

It solidified a massive fundraising advantage.

It crushed a nascent but serious threat on its right flank from the PPC.

It took more seats from the Liberals and NDP than the other way around.

It set itself up against a Liberal government that can only last as long as people who frequently vote BQ and identify as Quebec nationalists maintain their interest in voting Liberal. That’s…. not a comfortable position if you’re the LPC.

But it still lost – albeit narrowly – because of how their approach influenced the decisions of voters who opposed them.

Still, there’s good reason to believe that staying the course has a good chance of delivering a victory.

The people who voted Conservative are people who had intended to do so for an average of two or so years. They were committed voters, the vast majority of whom stayed with the party, even a political earthquake upended everything. The Conservatives appear only to have lost voters who had come over to the CPC in the month before the election, dropping from a peak of 44% in polls to a final result of 41.3% – basically within MOE of their peak and where they were pretty much on average for all of 2024.

On the other hand, a lot of Liberal voters are people who only decided to vote Liberal within a month or so of doing so in extremely unusual and emotionally charged circumstances. They had longstanding reasons for opposing the Liberals before then, and probably will be reminded of them as the Liberals roll out an agenda their prior parties opposed and have to make extremely hard choices in the face of American pressure through their tariffs, security threats, and disinfo ops and a global recession. Such decisions can never please everyone, and lots of people are going to be disappointed that *their* priority wasn’t given top billing when funding triage is set up.

So Gurney hits the nail on the head: how likely is it that this new Liberal coalition will hold up? If the NDP and BQ bounce back, which history suggests should be likely, the CPC is made in the shade. If not…. this could end messily for them.

Also, moderating is not without risk. As Scheer and O’Toole discovered very much the hard way, the right populist flank is always willing to make a split if it feels its no longer driving its own bus. A new Bernier-style threat and/or caucus revolt, like what happened to O’Toole, are very possible if the leadership „overcompensates“.

While I personally hope they lose badly, regardless of the path they take, its an interesting exercise in political strategy.

EDIT: This is wild, Poilievre won a bigger share of the Ontario vote than *Doug Ford did in the last provincial election!* The entire dynamic of the province is shaped by NDP vs. Liberal.

… the toxicity of the CPC leadership, their lack of vision and talent, and their incompetence is why they lost.

What won’t be easy, is unseating the people who are the cause; Poilievre and his minions. But unless they do, they will be out for another decade.

My thoughts are that it’s a combination of things. He barely said anything about trump or the threat of 51st state. Never having a real job, but trying to act like he understands blue collar workers. The dumb slogans. Not allowing journalists to ask questions while he was campaigning. He couldn’t let go of fighting Trudeau after he stepped down

Genuine question, how hard is it for the CPC to get a candidate that is not a career politician? If mark carney ran for the CPC, we’d have one of the strongest majorities in recent CPC history