Wenn die Ru -Armee nicht mehr an der UA besetzt wäre, wäre das nächste Ziel der Suwałki Gap?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap
Wenn die Ru -Armee nicht mehr an der UA besetzt wäre, wäre das nächste Ziel der Suwałki Gap?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap
20 Kommentare
My uneducated redditor guest would be Moldova or Georgia.
Kazakhstan or so. I think that Russia will attack Europe only when us will be distracted with Asia
As long as NATO still appears as a credible threat, no.
Not an article, but an open question exploring future conflict escalation options. Taking The Suwałki Gap would cut off three members of Nato: Lithuania, Latvija, Estonia, from the rest of the alliance.
I don’t see it. The Russian military is battered and exhausted from combat operations in Ukraine. It will probably take a decade at current production levels to replace lost equipment and begin replenishing stockpiles. The Belarusian forces are in an even worse position and none of Russia’s allies are going to send troops to tangle with NATO.
If Russia tried to fight this war now, with the state their military is currently in, it would would fare very poorly.
Probably the Baltics in general. They’re tiny, and in the case of Latvia and Estonia, have a very sizable Russian population that can be used to justify an occupation. Furthermore, there seems to be a calculus that neither NATO nor Western Europe will risk sacrificing their lives or all-out war for the tiny Baltic nations, and quite honestly, it seems like they’re most likely right.
Remember that Nato has nuclear weapons, think about it a bit, and answer your own question
short answer: no
I think the most problematic issue is not the invasion itself, which is inevitable, but will USA react as well as Western Europe regarding direct confrontation with Russia as a result of an invasion on Lithuania and Poland. I think its time that the concept of Intermarium should stop being simple larping and become a serious geopolitical project in practice. A military alliance between Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine and Czechia is fundamental.
I think it would be to bold of a move. If they wanted to test NATO, they could take some border towns that are primarily Russian ethnically. See how they respond.
Nothing. The Ukrainian war seals the threat of geography for Russia. It cuts the possible defense border from 2000 km to mere 780 km on Ukrainian western side. According to the book “Prisoners of Geography” by Tim Marshal, Putin faces the same problem that Peter the great has, and that is the European plain. Sealing it, is Russias top geopolitical priority. On average Russia has been invaded through the plane every 35 years.
NATO needs to create a „hellscape“ in that area so there’s no chance of RU crossing
Not likely. Poland and Lithuania are both NATO members, and Poland has been arming to the teeth to counter any Russian aggressions. Furthermore, unlike Ukraine, Poland has an air force and has been investing in bilateral defence alliances with other NATO member states. Especially after the damage inflicted on Russian army, it would be suicidal to attack a NATO country.
Someone else suggested Azerbaijan, but that would trigger a conflict with Turkey (defence pact) and probably some European nations as well (due to their energy investments).
I think that it is the biggest threat and it could be a fait accompli by the time that NATO reacts. By then, Russia would threaten nuclear war if NATO tried to take back the land bridge.
My first post on Reddit. I live in one of the Baltic states and have crossed the Suwałki gap multiple times.
This would mean Ostpreußen *Heim ins Reich*.
You’re taking Russian control of Belarus for granted, when it’s actually precarious. Bringing Belarus into the war would lead to Belarus either split between Western west and Russian east, or flipping pro-Europe as a whole.
Imho it depends on how the Ukraine war ends and whether Nato/EU is a credible force. If we appear weak or divided in Putin’s eyes, they might test Nato/EU in the Baltic states. They might try to attack Ukraine again to cut it off from the Black Sea. Moldova before it can join the EU also seems logical.
Since the US has become stupid and is at best an unreliable ally, we need a strong united Europe with a European army.
If a war with Russia is inevitable, I hope it will happen sooner rather than later, because I am ready to defend Europe. I don’t want my children to have to go to war for me.
What about a possible Romanian attack to stop their “undemocratic tyranny” against Calin Georgescu? People might vote for him anyway, and he might use that as reason for calling himself the “winner.”
There is absolutely no way RUS could start another war anytime soon. It would be *catastrophic* for Putin’s regime.
He may be a megalomaniacal authoritarian genocidal maniac, but he’s not an idiot.