Russland gewinnt nicht
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/ukraine-russia-war-position/681916/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo
Russland gewinnt nicht
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/ukraine-russia-war-position/681916/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo
19 Kommentare
Graeme Wood: “Last year, Russia made slow progress in Ukraine: Tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Russian soldiers were killed or wounded, and five whole mechanized divisions were lost, in exchange for Ukrainian territory slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island. At that rate, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years. Keep that figure in mind when you hear President Donald Trump or Vice President J. D. Vance declare, as Trump did last week at their Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that Ukraine is ‘not winning’ the war and that it is in ‘a very bad position.’ Russia’s position is also ‘bad’—and perhaps more agonizing, because Russians taste the extra bitterness that comes with the knowledge that they could, in February 2022, have just stayed home and not started the war. Both sides have lost, which means that declaring only one side the loser is a peculiar choice.
“I spoke with two people who have watched the conflict during the past three years to find out which country has time on its side. George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War has analyzed the Russian position and accordingly updated ISW’s map of the state of the conflict. Andrey Liscovich manages a charity, the Ukraine Defense Fund, that has supplied nonlethal aid to Ukraine since 2022, on the theory (borne out during the past year) that the war will be won not by who can produce the most artillery shells but by who can most efficiently outfit their troops with items such as battery packs and radio kits available from Best Buy and RadioShack. He has visited the front lines repeatedly from the Ukrainian side…”
“Barros told me that Russia’s ability to recruit new personnel is ‘completely busted.’ Vladimir Putin has relied on mercenary and convict soldiers, combined with lavish bonuses for poor Russians who volunteer to try their luck against killer Ukrainian robots on the steppe. Barros described a delicate social contract between Putin and his citizens: ‘The contract is: I don’t force you to go fight in Ukraine. I pay you to go fight in Ukraine.’ …”
“In a poor country like Russia, handing out fistfuls of rubles is the very definition of desperation. Russia has inflation at rates approaching 20 percent (officially, they are about 9 percent), and it has been sucking its own sovereign wealth fund dry. But Ukraine is poor, too, and has man-power issues to match Russia’s. Liscovich pointed out that Russia’s population is three times Ukraine’s and that when the money runs out, its population can be forced to serve—which means it would be in roughly the same demoralized state that Ukraine is in right now …”
“At their most humane, Trump’s Russia-Ukraine statements focus on the daily massacre afflicting both sides. ‘The big thing is the number of soldiers,’ he said at the beginning of the Zelensky meeting, before it went sour. ‘We’re losing a lot of soldiers, and we want to see it stop.’ The war will end in a deal. Why not a deal now rather than a deal in a year? A deal now might spare 1 million Russians and Ukrainians. But this macabre calculation is more complicated when one considers that Ukraine has been fighting for independence and survival. If these goals are now beyond its reach, then prompt surrender, or whatever Trump and Putin propose, is the only option. But Ukraine seems to think that if Russia seizes its territory at the current rate, Russia will eventually run out of men, tanks, money, and the will to fight. If Ukraine is in that position—having to hold out, and suffer and inflict more death and destruction for another year or more—then its position is unenviable, but it is not a losing one.”
Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/qLUmuYkv](https://theatln.tc/qLUmuYkv)
Yeah, neither side are „winning“. Russia is just losing slower than Ukraine. We need to stabilise Ukraine and keep sanctions up on Russia.
This is kinda the cope that I am left with haha. Even after the war ends and even on favorable terms it looks like Russia is caught in a trap. They are worried about how the vets will react when demobilized and continued mobilization will be costly and ruinous for their economy
Then let’s give Ukraine the tools to prevail, irrespective of Trump and his lapdog Vance.
Yes they are, they got Krasnov
I don’t know about that anymore now that they’re bffs with the United States.
If Russia won’t win this war in an instant with USA support it now receives from Trump, this would be so embarrassing for America.
Slow victory is not enough. They need blitzkrieg, or both USA and Russia will become laughing stock, and Ukraine will become a new graveyard of empires.
If Ukraine is to win the war, it won’t be directly on the field. It’s the crumbling of their economy that will break Russia’s ability to wage war. Inflation, coupled with them running out of money, will do the trick.
Because of the sanctions, Russia has no access to foreign credit. Their plan B was asking banks to buy sovereign debt, and that worked for two years. Then they moved to plan C: using its sovereign wealth fund. However, even that may be depleted soon. How soon that will be depends on the price of oil. If the price cap is implemented properly, they may drain the fund this year. And then there is no more money, literally.
However bad the situation is for Ukraine after the horrific treatment by the US it is given rn. Russia will not come out of this either way. They have crossed the point of no return long ago and will suffer from the consequences of this invasion either way. They aren‘t even in the occupation stages yet. Still in the invasion stages. And suffering casualties. Putin can play it over but the damage is done for decades. Demographically, militarily, economically, historically and socially.
They are winning the Influence Operation against the American people though.
They are in the USA. They will have american government support soon.
Yes, yes. Let’s continue to repeat this spell and ignore the loss of villages, cities and strongholds by Ukraine on a daily basis.
This is not happening!
Russia is not winning!
Go collective spellcasting!
This will send these Russians to the knockout for sure!
Europe needs to stop buying oil from Russia. They are funding Russian forces.
This article focuses on very much in the conflict. But big picture Russia has lost significantly. They were consider a significant power before this invasion and now we have seen they can get stopped and stalemated by a country like Ukraine which was a basket case before the war.
Europe panic at Trump potentially leaving NATO is pretty odd considering if Russia has a go at NATO sans USA these countries really should be able to easily handle the diminished Russia.
I mean no one’s exactly winning at the moment.
Russia has been losing badly recently (I’m not talking about the Ukraine war specifically here but on a wider scale), with trump they’ve had a reprieve and can rest for a bit. Maybe they’ll use this time to strengthen and perhaps that will go well for them who knows at this time, but it’s wrong to say they are winning just cause they got a reprieve, right now no one is winning.
They don’t have to control all of Ukraine – taking Kyiv would be enough to end the war. That still leaves them in an attritional war for several years though.
Soon enough if Russia gets desperate enough it’ll ask it’s allies to help. China especially since Xi just announced they’re up for ‘any’ war with the U.S.
That’s one stupid article. This one passage alone makes it laughable: *“At the current rate, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years.“*. [Yeah, yeah](https://xkcd.com/605/).
*“Russians taste the extra bitterness that comes with the knowledge that they could, in February 2022, have just stayed home and not started the war.“*. Uh, sorry to break it you, but that’s not exactly the prevailing mood in Russia. And surely Ukrainians should be bitter too, because they could have had peace in 2022 after Istanbul talks with only two regions lost, but instead their leadership decided to throw them into the meat grinder, and now they’re facing a worse deal, losing at least 4 regions – which their president still doesn’t even considers, and which could get worse still?
The rest of the article is mostly repeating Ukrainian propaganda, which is fine for masses, but should be avoided in a sub that is supposed to „analyze and predict the actions and decisions of nations, or other forms of political power“.
Article reeks of cope, unfortunately. Anyone who supports Ukraine should understand the dire situation they are in currently.