Wie endet der Krieg in der Ukraine aus Ihrer Sicht?
https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-7d18400b935166773bbd3b3323c8aa5f
Wie endet der Krieg in der Ukraine aus Ihrer Sicht?
https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-7d18400b935166773bbd3b3323c8aa5f
9 Kommentare
Unfairly. With unresolved hatred that will bubble up again. And again.
Apparently I gotta do a submission statement so this post doesn’t get banned mods got weird rules here . All I gotta do it 3-5 sentences so…. I’m just wondering how the Ukraine war will come to an end. It definitely feels like a decade defining war and I wonder what will be the ultimate result of it .
short term freeze in the war.
Ukraine will be accelerated to EU (2-5 years timeframe).
Ukraine will not be in NATO.
Ukraine will get military funding from europe but also weak security guarantees from europe.
Ukraine is likely to build nuclear weapons.
Ukraine will not forget, and ukraine will not forgive.
Europe will concentrate european forces along the baltics and poland but not inside ukraine.
Europe and Canada will enter a renaissance period especially militarily.
Germany with chancellor merz will emerge as the anti fascist leader against the fascist/imperialist coalition of trump and putin.
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Consider US and Europe relationship to be done.
Trump will re-align US to be allied with russia.
Russia and US will guarantee each countries security.
Russia-US will exploit resources in eastern ukraine.
US troops/PMC will be statined in russian occupied eastern ukraine and will guard it for its resource exploitation.
They will have joint ventures in russia as well as in antarctica and arctic.
They will also have other escapades in third world countries.
There will be a power struggle between musk/trump and trump will emerge as the victor.
Americans will enjoy short lived cheap access to oil, gas and other resources from russia.
Russians will have higher standard of living.
Russia will re arm stronger than ever and will have access to western intelligence and military tactics through the US.
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China will trade with everyone but will seek to gain influence in south america and africa. China will wait out everything as it’s likely america, europe and russia will destroy each other in the next decade. China will emerge after the great war as the true superpower same way america emerged as THE superpower post WWII since every one else’s country is flattened.
Well, this is what china is betting on.
Another likely outcome is a civil war in the US (or a simultaneous civil-war and great war/WWIII) which will derail russia’s ambitions, and will still lead to an outcome of a more powerful china in the world stage.
Ironically, this russia and US partnership will sink their countries into lower status long term.
Has there been any other major conflicts that were this whiplash in the modern day? The only ones I can think of are some of the recent African civil wars, specifically Ethiopia and Sudan. Those have been all over the place in terms of alliances, control of territory, foreign support, ect. It seemed like Abiy’s rule was generally under dire threat for about a month but then rapidly turned with the help of outside influence. Ukraine has been the same way, but the difference being superpowers wielding the power.
No one can predict the outcome. US might wake up and oust Trump. Trump might succeed and double down and lean hard into Russia. EU might actually pull up and send troops to UA.
Russia is absolutely the more stable player here, and has proven they can keep this conflict going at the expense of the West. China could also sour their opinion on Russia and feel the US could be getting too cozy with them. There’s just so many possibilities.
My personal opinion, which is worth dirt, is that Russia succeeds in its current goals and hold Crimea and occupies East Ukraine. I don’t think the EU is going to, or even is able to, start a massive regional war against Russia after losing its strongest ally. The next few years will be massively influential on the world stage.
Russia gains the territory in the East and will still hold Crimea. Russia gains its buffer zone from NATO and Western alliances. Open relations with the US, depending on what mood strikes the current Administration that week.
Europe not being able to look to the US for defense leadership will strengthen defense, contribute more to defense and look to bolster countries bordering Russia so this can’t happen again. The UK and Germany lead these efforts.
Ukraine gets security guarantees and a lot of foreign investments for cleaning up the country and its infrastructure. While they are not going to get NATO membership they will be involved with security and defense agreements.
All in all a Russian win; a US ball drop in regards to supporting Democracy and a stable Europe; European defense spending increase; and a very hard and sharp double edged sword for Ukraine. Oh, and all the while China is laughing at all of them as they further invest in Africa, South America and the South Pacific.
No one will believe in International Law that just doesn’t work on WMD-countries.
No one will believe to USA as International Law protector and reliable security guarantor.
No one will want to be the next Ukraine.
Many want to be the next Russia or USA, part of WMD-aristocracy.
Iran will create nukes. Then SA.
And thereafter suddenly will become known that most countries of the World have enormous quantities of long range drones and hints about „special warheads“ from them.
Most likely American government will abandon Ukraine very soon, Europeans will try to pick up the slack depending on what happens decides the fate of Ukraine as negotiations will not be accepted by Ukraine and Europe which is one of the reasons neither of them are involved. Ukraine has severe manpower issues.
The only way Ukraine stays in this war at this point is if Europeans go to war with Russians because I am not sure if Europeans are in position to help Ukraine as much in their current condition.
I think you will see Eastern Europe get together with the Baltic countries if not most of Europe to support Ukraine or at least provide some real security guarantees. Oh and I can see the Turks wanting a free Ukraine.. or at least a distracted Russia.
I’ll be honest Europe has been lax on their own defense (outside of the ones that actually border Russia) and kind of needed this wake up call from the US. This is hopefully better for Europe in the long run.
As for Ukraine specifically I think it can continue with just the support from Europe. If the EU took 1% of its GDP and put it towards the defense of Ukraine that would be about a half trillion dollars. That’s about 1/4th of the total Russian economy for reference. Ukraine also has some options they still have their 18-25 population for conscription and they actually have a robust weapons industry especially for drones and are capable of continuing the fight. Hopefully Russia breaks down sooner rather than later and we can have a better resolution than capitulation.
Ukraine, along with European military aid, can continue to defend much of the territory they currently hold for the foreseeable future regardless of whether American military aid continues.
I don’t know how the war will end, and it would be easier to say what is wrong with most ideas. The biases/motivations anyone making a singular prediction should be considered. Seeking certainty is human nature. I certainly make predictions to myself, but often human nature goes against objectiveness.