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      DARPA is looking to predict, incentivize, and deter the future behaviors of the Pentagon’s adversaries by developing an algorithmic “theory of mind.”

      ***“The program will seek not only to understand an actor’s current strategy but also to find a decomposed version of the strategy into relevant basis vectors to track strategy changes under non-stationary assumptions”*** — DARPA

      The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is putting together a research program called “Theory of Mind” with the goal of developing “new capabilities to enable national security decisionmakers to optimize strategies for deterring or incentivizing actions by adversaries,” according to a very brief special announcement.

      ***“The goal of an upcoming program will be to develop an algorithmic theory of mind to model adversaries’ situational awareness and predict future behavior”*** –DARPA

      According to DARPA, “The program will seek to combine algorithms with human expertise to explore, in a modeling and simulation environment, potential courses of action in national security scenarios with far greater breadth and efficiency than is currently possible.

      “This would provide decisionmakers with more options for incentive frameworks while preventing unwanted escalation.”

      ***“DARPA is interested in developing new capabilities to enable national security decisionmakers to optimize strategies for deterring or incentivizing actions by adversaries” — DARPA***

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