338 Sonntags-Update: Abseits des Repräsentantenhauses verlieren die Konservativen immer wieder an Boden
https://www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-update-away-from-the-house
338 Sonntags-Update: Abseits des Repräsentantenhauses verlieren die Konservativen immer wieder an Boden
https://www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-update-away-from-the-house
6 Kommentare
87 seats projected for the Conservatives.
The 338Canada federal model was launched around the times of the 2019 federal election. The visible 338Canada history on the chart goes as far as November 2019. This is the first time the CPC has ever had an average below the 90 seats mark in the model in the 2020s decade.
And, I am pretty confident, for the entire model’s history too.
The Liberals remade themselves by removing Trudeau and electing Carney. The Conservative doubled-down on PP, who only half-heartily tried to remake himself but then abandoned it.
For better, or for worse, the Conservatives have decided to ride the PP train to wherever it takes them.
I know that PP still has very strong support in his base, but I think the bigger issue is how challenging it will be for him to grow his base. If he moderates, he might be able to draw in some moderates, but he’d anger his base. And if he continues catering to his base, it’s not likely he’ll attract enough moderates to be competitive in the next national election.
I think it’s pretty clear to everyone at this point that the Conservatives don’t actually care about anything other than their base. They’re going to continue to ride PP until the base tires of him (certainly not in the near future), or the Liberals become unpopular enough that they win by ‚default‘ because they’re the only other party seen as viable by the electorate.
I guess they technically tried this strategy with the fall of Trudeau, but it backfired on them because the Liberals pivoted to the ‚right man for the job‘ (which is what savvy political parties that aren’t ideologically driven will do). For better or worse, we’re stuck with PP as leader of the opposition until we figure out what to do about the substantial percentage of the country (25-30%) who are completely okay with (or eagerly celebrating) what he represents.
I would love nothing more than to see the Conservatives do a stint of third or fourth party status. It might actually shake the crazy out of them for a bit.
Here are some hard truths:
-The CPC is probably in the mid 30s and this summertime polling doesnt matter. They could probably run a 2×4 and still be in that 33 to 36% territory.
-Most conservatives like PP more than a milquetoast PC candidate. Most people who dislike PP probably wouldnt vote for the CPC anyway.
-Even if they didnt like him, most acknowledge he is probably the only person capable of holding the tent together right now at this moment, and getting rid of him would be injurious moreso than keeping him.
-Last .. the only party that will defeat the LPC is the LPC. If they crater in Quebec or lose ground to the NDP in BC or just anywhere with vote splitting, then the CPC can likely be competitive in Ontario and ultimately get a minority with Bloc support