In den letzten Monaten habe ich ein Elo-Bewertungssystem aufgebaut, das die Stärke jedes europäischen Fußballvereins einschätzt.
Die Bewertungen werden aus mehr als 70.000 Pflichtspielen berechnet, darunter nationale Ligen, Pokale und UEFA-Wettbewerbe. Bei jedem Spiel werden die Bewertungen beider Teams basierend auf dem erwarteten Ergebnis, der Tordifferenz und der Gewichtung des Wettbewerbs aktualisiert.
Der vollständige Datensatz deckt derzeit Tausende von Vereinen in ganz Europa ab, mit historischen Ratingänderungen und Ligavergleichen.
Auf dem Screenshot zeige ich die 100 besten Clubs.
Von ficxjo19
43 Kommentare
Very interesting, thank you.
elo works so much better for club strength than UEFA coefficients. curious what K-factor you used for goal margins
Are you hosting this somewhere? If not, you should!
Aston Villa being ranked above Liverpool seems like a weird result.
Brighton going toe to toe with Milan is certainly interesting. And Bournemouth in 15th is wild
Coventry City being in the top 100?
That 1987 FA Cup win doing a lot of heavy lifting.
In my totally non-biased opinion, I love that Mainz 05 is far above Eintracht Frankfurt
Sporting 19 places higher than Chelsea? Hmm
How can FC Famalicão be in the top 100, if they haven’t played a single match in European competitions?
And where is Amica Wronki AD 2000s. ManagerRichard Forbich was able to win every game, by fixing it.
Nice one! You should have a look at the longstanding http://clubelo.com/
Cool stats. But I think the system is favouring small clubs from big leagues. For example Paris FC is ranked 79th while Ajax and Feyenoord are not even on the list. Narrowly winning against PSG probably bumped them up the list while the Dutch teams missed out such big games entirely.
Really cool to see Coventry City in the top 100. Sky Blues!
How come PSG isn’t at the top? I guess it is due to weighting of the strength of the teams in the league but they also haven’t lost in the knockout stages of the Champions League in 2 years now
I was suspicious seeing my club so high until I fully expended the image.
this is wrong, arsenal and PSG can’t have dropped points.
How did Como 1907 become so dominant so fast?
3 clubs bretons, je valide 😁
Only one dutch club is shocking
Post this on r/soccer maybe
Is this like an all time elo rating or just based off of last season?
Frosinone (serie B laat season) in top 100 but no Feyenoord or Ajax? Smh, this list doesn’t make any sense at all
Coventry are in the top 100, so your data or calculation is clearly flawed.
That’s actually really awesome.
How is a club like Frankfurt that regularly plays european football and even won the Europa League in 2022 on a level with a 2. division team (conventry)?
Interesting, wondering why the large drop of points for arsenal in the last 2 data points? Pretty sure they had a strong end of the season.
How did you seed the data (as in the initial ELO rating)?
Can some ELI5 how doe ELO ranking work?
And how far back does this go? Like it includes results from which year onwards?
This seems to overrate dominant clubs from small leagues and singular results from smaller teams in big leagues. There’s no way anyone would agree that Braga would be the favorite against Chelsea or Club Brugge would be the favorite against Leipzig. And – no disrespect – but to have a team like Levski Sofia on here but not a lot of Top-4 teams just isn’t realitstic in terms of playing strength
Very nice but there’s a huge league confounding factor.
Usually in ELO systems everyone plays everyone and not in siloed leagues. For many in the PL getting a draw against a highly ranked team boosts their own rating unreasonably much.
So a draw and loss against Arsenal will be quite positive for a lower rated team. But lower rated teams from other leagues never had the chance to draw such a high team. Then it’s league in itself. A long league isn’t the same as tournaments or one offs like they do in chess. Yes they have chesseague too, e.g., Bundesliga but it isn’t quite the same.
I think this should be tweaked somehow.
Very cool, Similar to clubelo http://clubelo.com if you want to check out how they do it.
Interesting, are you using underlying data like xG or just the final result & goals?
No Ajax and feyenoord in top 100? That cannot be correct right.
What’s the difference between your approach and clubelo.com?
Edit: interestingly I just visited clubelo.com and noticed that Bayern Munich was not presented at all. Any reasons?
This is a great illustration of the strength of the Premier League – while the top teams in Spain, Germany & France are on par (or even slightly stronger) than the top English teams, the 10th best English team (for example) is far stronger than their equivalents in others leagues.
It actually works against the top English teams a bit, as they have to go through it week after week to pick up wins, while Barca, Bayern & PSG usually win at least half their games while obly in 2nd gear. This means that English teams struggle more in the latter stages of the Champions League, as they can’t afford to rest players domestically.
How can PSG lose do many point around their 2 CL ?
why is bayern above arsenal this makes no sense… arsenal won their league and made it to cl final. bayern didn’t make the final…
[ClubElo.com](http://ClubElo.com) does this too, what’s different here?
Bayern dominating their „farmers league“ criticism incoming :p
Now do it for the past 10 years to have a real overview.
The huge issue is ton give the same value for a useless league game (say after you are already guaranteed first) and a league game that is extremely important
You can’t use an ELO system to compare teams from different leagues.
Im curious about the time span for your data for each team. Do you account for variances between matches when a team’s roster differs? How do you measure the difference in performance from game to game or year to year if the roster changes? I’m not familiar enough with soccer to know how many seasons are covered by this many teams to equal 70k matches.