Die tickende Uhr an der Straße von Hormus

Thomas Wright: Trump resumed the war with Iran “despite having already explained why military force could not achieve its most pressing objective. He has not resolved this tension. It may be irresoluble. In the meantime, he is betting that Tehran will buckle before economic pressure forces him to do the same.

“To understand where we are, consider how the cease-fire collapsed. Each party believed that it had won the war and that the other should accede to its interpretation of the agreement on the strait. Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding stated that Iran ‘will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.’ The Trump administration took this to mean that Iran was obligated to open the strait without tolls for 60 days. But Tehran read it as permission to manage and control access through the waterway. Consequently, Iran sought to funnel ships through corridors it approved, and attacked or threatened vessels that used other routes.

“In doing so, Tehran made a serious error in judgment. If it had laid low, it could have reaped the benefits of economic concessions for 60 days and then gradually introduced a toll. Instead, Trump felt compelled to respond, and the agreement broke down … 

“Trump may inflict more pain on Iran, but this is unlikely to compel Tehran to abandon its attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps Iran will agree to put its ambitions on hold for 60 days in the hope that the previous agreement can be revived. But if the two sides remain gridlocked, Trump will have to decide whether to pay the economic price for continuing a low-intensity war indefinitely; escalate, with all of the risks that entails; or walk away.”

Read more: [https://theatln.tc/OghTbtj1](https://theatln.tc/OghTbtj1)

Hormuz is the real leverage point here. Roughly a fifth of global oil flows through that stretch, so even a credible threat of disruption moves markets. Iran knows this and plays it every time things get tense.

The article’s right that Tehran miscalculated by being too aggressive too fast. A quieter play would have been way smarter, let the 60 days tick down, then quietly introduce tolls while everyone was looking elsewhere. Instead they handed Trump a reason to come back swinging.

Walking away or escalating are both ugly options. Walking away means Iran owns the strait de facto. Escalating means a real shooting war with a country that can make life miserable for shipping. There is no clean third path here, just bad choices with different price tags.