Warum riskiert Trump mittelfristig eine Katastrophe, indem er den unpopulären Iran-Krieg wieder aufnimmt?

Because thats his role in the US establisments good cop, bad cop game

Excerpts from [article](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/18/trump-iran-war-political-midterm-risk) by Robert Tait in Washington DC:

*[…] Less than four months before November’s midterm elections in which Democrats are seeking to recapture both houses of Congress, Trump appears to be flirting with electoral disaster in re-stoking a war that is already unpopular with voters – not least for its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs.*

*“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, a magazine promoting isolationist foreign policy goals favored by Trump’s “American first” supporters.*

*“I think it’s a total loser. It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms. He’s like Icarus with the sun with this stuff – it seems to be a personal vendetta with the Iranians.”*

*Beyond the electoral impact, experts warn that escalation could lead inexorably to a land invasion of Iranian territory – a decision that could in turn bring on the sort of long-term “forever wars” he previously foreswore and condemned past presidents for.*

 

*[…] Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies argued that the MoU’s collapse was a consequence of US and Iranian miscalculation.*

*“I don’t think there was a misunderstanding. I think this is exactly what Trump intended,” he said.*

*He cited recent comments by JD Vance, the US vice-president, suggesting that the MoU was signed to give an opportunity to replenish strategic oil reserves, thereby weakening Iran’s negotiating hand while temporarily easing the pressure on fuel costs.*

*“The MoU was mainly a breather for Trump to try to get what he wants, which is to get control of the strait or take it away from Iran,” Nasr said. “Trump is trying to take it away from them before he negotiates, so they are not in a position to resist his demands on the nuclear issue or anything else.*

*“Iran also made a gamble that it could basically use the 60 days in order to get some economic relief by bringing imports into the country, while making its position stronger. The bottom line is that there may have been a miscalculation. But there is no misunderstanding.*

*“Trump may have overestimated what he can do militarily, and again falls short [and decides]: ‘I have to set up something else.’ The Iranians are also overestimating how much they can resist. This is something neither side knows.”*

 

*The potential for miscalculation is heightened by the absence of Iran specialists in Trump’s administration.*

*[Former White House adviser] Swanson – who has said he was forced out of his state department post after a critical tweet from the rightwing influencer, Laura Loomer – blamed the deficiency on Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, whom he said had “physically removed” key personnel.*

*“I’m struck by some of the leaks that have come out about decision-making in this war, where Rubio is reportedly skeptical about the regime change aims that the Israelis propose to Trump, but then says nothing,” said Swanson, now with the Atlantic Council. “He’s basically neutralized the [state] department, then stays quiet [but] privately tries to clear his name in the aftermath.”*

*Instead of seasoned Iran specialists, Trump has relied on his tried-and-trusted negotiating team – namely Steve Witkoff, his chief envoy, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and latterly, Vance, who opposed the initial decision to go to war and was a key figure in negotiating the MoU.*

 

*“That is how he fundamentally misunderstood his adversary,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC. “Expertise would have come handy for the president, to actually listen to folks who’ve watched this Iranian system, and would have told him: ‘They’re not businessmen from New York. They’re made of a different type of DNA.’*

*“Trump now has an adversary that is willing to suffer a lot more than he thought. They are willing to risk on playing the strait of Hormuz card because it puts them in charge of so much of the global energy supply and turns some of the wealthiest countries in the Gulf into their hostages.”*

*Iran’s readiness to gamble could drive Trump to further raise the stakes, making further escalation – including a ground invasion – more likely.*

*Regime change – a goal explicitly sought at the start of the war with the assassination of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, in the first hours, followed by other key figures – seems off the table for now.*

He doesn’t care about the mid terms especially. The Dems won’t get enough seats to successfully impeach him, and Congress will be gridlocked so he’ll still just do whatever he wants through Executive Orders. His party doesn’t matter to him, so he isn’t going to modify his behavior for them.

He also has painted himself into a corner by starting this war with half baked plans. To accomplish his various shifting goals would require a large number of ground troops, and he’s not willing (Thank God) to do that. It’s either walk away and burn up our missile defenses protecting our regional allies, keep bombing them so it looks like he’s doing something, or walk away, end all US influence in the region, and accept total defeat which would make himook bad. His ego would never allow two of those options, so bombing it is

Something like 39 of the last 42 mid term elections went to the minority party, he’s already lost the mid terms, he only needs to retain enough power to stay in office

Whether you think starting this war was smart or not the calculus has changed. The article spends a lot of time on Trumps personality but if the Strait of Hormuz is really as important as it argues then these pressures would exist for any president. I think the question now is What is America trying to achieve and what does it give up if it stops short of those goals?

He already had that covered by preemptively blaming China for the mid term.

Because he knows he is going to stay in power either way!

Because he’s bad at his job

The Iran war made the Epstein files go away.

rallies his base. Midterms were already lost anyway.

Because Israel keeps feeding Trump “intel” about Iranian assassination attempts on his life. Poor sucker believes every word Israel says.