Trump hat im Iran nur schreckliche Entscheidungen
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/07/trump-iran-negotiations-hormuz-nuclear/687937/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
Trump hat im Iran nur schreckliche Entscheidungen
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/07/trump-iran-negotiations-hormuz-nuclear/687937/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
10 Kommentare
Brynn Tannehill: “Here we are again: Iran is shooting at traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump is ordering retaliatory strikes, and both sides have declared the latest cease-fire agreement ‘over’ or ‘dead’ … The United States has precious few options left for breaking the deadlock over the strait. And those it does have are neither appealing nor likely to succeed …
“The Iranians likely believe that their best option is to stay the course and stick to their maximalist demands. They don’t need to damage many ships to effectively shut down the strait; the threat of attack is enough to persuade most ship owners not to attempt to transit, even if insurance is available. This means that Iran needs very few missiles, drones, or mines to close the strait down. And it can withstand the U.S. blockade: Its economy appears reasonably stable, as it has continued exporting oil sufficient to meet its needs throughout the war. It also has a captive population that has grown used to sanctions and economic pain.
“The U.S. is effectively left with four options. Each of them is terrible in its own way. It can stay the current course. It can make life in Iran impossible. It can declare victory and go home. Or it can launch a ground invasion.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/9gHPlmBG](https://theatln.tc/9gHPlmBG)
Well, he’s alread broken the Rome Accords (which of course America has refused to sign), so I’d say so far he’s demonstrated a complete inability to chose wisely.
The public does not have a stomach for a ground invasion and the administration does not have the political capital nor the authoritarian control it thinks it has. Nobody wants this on either side of the divide.
Vietnam will look like a fanciful misadventure in comparison.
Thanks Israel!
the only winning move is not to play
The ships for the invasion would have to go through the strait.
Followed by loading troops in Kuwait or Qatar or pass the straight fully loaded. Then every single drop of fuel, food, ammo, and medicine do the same.
All within range of drones, missiles, and aircraft.
Or the U.S. offloads on the Red Sea ports and invades Iraq for the 4 time in 4 decades to get to Iran that way.
Republican government checklist.
✅ crash the economy.
✅destroy a bunch of environmental regulations.
✅ start an unwinable war in the middle east.
The cargo ship in the background is a nice visual reminder of the real leverage Iran holds here. Closing or threatening the Strait of Hormuz would spike oil prices overnight and drag the global economy into it, which is why any serious military option comes with a built-in economic punishment. That’s the bit that never gets mentioned when the hawks start talking tough.
Trump, like Putin has created a scenario where we come out the loser no matter what we do.
It really is a fuckup of epic proportions. Every single day that goes by makes the Obama admin’s efforts to have achieved a multi-nation agreement look that much more impressive.
But since the fuckup occurred and helped Iran realize the immense leverage they have… something has to be done. Continued air strikes by the U.S. and Israel quite clearly isn’t going to solve this. And let’s assume the Trump admin was replaced today with a competent admin and they successfully negotiated to get us back to square one where Iran didn’t attack vessels in the Strait and wasn’t trying to charge fees to vessels navigating it. That still leaves the world worse off because Iran has the knowledge that they can immediately shut the Strait down at any time incredibly easily. So any future attempts to police their behavior via non military means could presumably all result in the closing of the Strait.
To me, that means a significantly more involved approach would have to be pursued now. Something like a coalition of Iran’s neighbors and the most affected countries combining forces and sending in overwhelming numbers of ground forces, occupying Iran, deposing the IRGC, and holding elections so the Iranian people can take back control of their government. It would also include creating a large gray zone along the northern bank of the Strait that Iran is no longer allowed to control. This would result in significant casualties from both the coalition and Iran, but what other way exists to prevent Iran from holding the global economy hostage in the future if they don’t get their way on something?