Hinweise darauf, dass Chinas CO2-Emissionen 2023 ihren Höhepunkt erreicht haben könnten, da die „Erholung nach Covid“ im Mai endet

**Analysis: Monthly Drop Hints That China’s CO2 Emissions May Have Peaked in 2023**

**By Lauri Myllyvirta**

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 3% in March 2024, marking the end of a 14-month surge that began after the nation’s „zero-Covid“ controls were lifted in December 2022. This analysis, based on official figures and commercial data, suggests that China’s emissions may have peaked in 2023.

The main drivers behind this CO2 reduction were the expansion of solar and wind generation, which covered 90% of the growth in electricity demand, and a decline in construction activity. Additionally, oil demand growth came to a halt, indicating the end of the post-Covid economic rebound.

If China maintains the record levels of clean energy buildout seen last year, a 2023 peak in CO2 emissions is possible. However, views on the future growth of clean energy vary across industry and government sectors, which will ultimately determine whether China’s emissions have indeed peaked.

### Key Findings from the Analysis:

– **Renewable Energy Expansion:** Wind and solar power pushed the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation down to 63.6% in March 2024 from 67.4% a year earlier.
– **Construction Activity Decline:** Real-estate construction activity contracted, leading to an 8% fall in steel production and a 22% decrease in cement output.
– **Electric Vehicles:** EVs now account for about one in ten vehicles on Chinese roads, reducing petrol demand growth by 3.5 percentage points.

### March 2024 CO2 Emissions:

Despite significant increases in CO2 emissions in January and February 2024, emissions fell by 2% in March due to a 1% drop in coal use, flat oil demand, and a 22% drop in cement production. This reduction occurred despite a 14% rise in gas consumption.

The year-on-year comparison for January-February 2023 was still influenced by the low emissions base during the last year of zero-Covid, making March the first month to clearly indicate post-rebound emissions trends.

### Sector-Specific Trends:

– **Power Sector:** The power sector’s emissions growth slowed, contributing significantly to the overall reduction in emissions. The sector saw only a 1% increase in emissions year-on-year due to strong growth in solar and wind power.
– **Construction Sector:** Continued decline in demand for steel and cement resulted from reduced construction volumes, with steel production falling by 8% and cement production by 22%.
– **Oil and Gas Demand:** Oil demand for transport remained unchanged from a year earlier, while gas demand rebounded sharply, increasing 14% year-on-year.

### Future Outlook:

– **Clean Energy Growth:** The continuation of rapid clean energy growth is crucial for maintaining the emissions peak. Solar and wind capacity additions are essential to offset fossil fuel consumption.
– **Policy and Market Dynamics:** Divergent views on clean energy growth between industry and government will shape future emissions trends. The government’s economic policies now emphasize „new productive forces,“ shifting growth towards less energy-intensive sectors.

### Conclusion:

The fall in China’s emissions in March 2024 signals a potential peak in 2023, driven by substantial clean energy growth and a slowing post-Covid rebound. The future trajectory of China’s emissions will depend on sustained investment in clean energy and effective policy implementation to manage the transition from fossil fuels.